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CRS: Bull Flag detected on 9 Apr 2026

All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on 9 Apr 2026.

Overall Score

78 of 100

Good

Win Probability

62%

Moderate

Reward / Risk

0.6 : 1

$4.74 reward $-8.48 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Current Setup

CRS hit a new 52-week high on April 8, 2026, with the stock now forming a bull flag pattern at $427.84—just 0.25% below the 52-week high of $428.91. The structure score of 10.62/15 and breakout score of 13.0/13 indicate a tight consolidation with strong directional commitment. Volume is elevated at 1.59x average (1.3M shares vs 814K 20-day avg), providing solid confirmation. The pattern sits atop a steep price advance from $394 on April 6, supported by prior rounding bottom (formed July 2025, 180 days in pattern) and a breakaway gap that formed April 8. Key support lies at $351.20; resistance at $428.91.

Stock Context

Carpenter Technology reported Q2 2026 earnings of $2.33 per share on January 29, 2026, beating estimates of $2.20 by $0.13. The SAO segment delivered record quarterly operating income of $174.6 million, with adjusted operating margin of 33.1%, up from 28.3% year-over-year. Commercial Aerospace bookings increased 23% sequentially, signaling accelerating end-market demand. Wall Street Zen upgraded CRS from hold to buy on January 31, and KeyCorp initiated coverage with an overweight rating on March 25. Aerospace and Defense end-use market demand continues to accelerate as customers gain confidence with ramping build rates. Industrials sector regime is bullish (0.86 score) and market regime is bullish (0.58), providing tailwinds for this pattern breakout.

What to Expect

A successful bull flag breakout would target $449.23 (conservative target), representing a +5% gain from current levels. The pattern has a 61.77% historical win probability. Volume confirmation is critical: breakout above $428.91 resistance should see volume sustaining above 1.2M shares to validate the move. Invalidation occurs below key support at $351.20, which would represent a -18% decline and signal reversal of the prior rounding-bottom setup. Given the strength in recent earnings, aerospace bookings, and margin expansion, the pattern suggests upside momentum could extend if resistance breaks cleanly.

Risk Factors

Carpenter Technology will report Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, creating near-term event risk just 20 days out. Insider SVP James D. Dee sold 15,800 shares at $391.78 on February 24, suggesting some profit-taking at lower levels. Elevated beta of 1.49 and volatility of 53.25% indicate high price swings—this stock moves 5.27% daily on average (ATR-14: $22.54), amplifying downside risk. RSI at 62.32 is approaching overbought territory but not yet critical. The 209% gain from 52-week lows means risk of profit-taking is present. Cyclical aerospace exposure and raw material cost risks remain structural concerns in specialty metals.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Bullish 0.58

-1.0 0 +1.0

Industrials Sector

Bullish 0.86

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Rounding Bottom

180 days in pattern

Moderate 28.8

Breakaway Gap

30 days in pattern

Strong 34.0

Overall Score

35 of 40

Strong

Pattern Quality

20 of 20

Exceptional

Setup

11 of 20

Fair

R/R

13 of 18

Good

Context

Pattern Quality Score

11 of 15

Good

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

11 of 12

Exceptional

Volume

Recent Performance

+8.6%

+7.1%

+8.1%

+27.5%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

62.3

Neutral

MACD Histogram

+1.96

Strong Bullish

Bollinger Band Position

109.7%

Upper Band

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.53

Very High

ATR %

5.3%

High

Beta

1.49

Above Mkt

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

1.59x

Very High

20-Day Avg Vol

814K

shares / day

Current Volume

1.3M

shares traded

Price Levels

Target

$449.23

52W High

$428.91

Resistance

$428.91

Current

$427.84

Stop Loss

$376.50

Support

$351.20

52W Low

$138.23

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.