FIG: Ascending Triangle detected on 26 Feb 2026

FIG is forming an ascending triangle pattern with a 73.71% win probability. Current price at $31.24 sits 1.12% above the key resistance level of $30.56, with strong structure (11.88/15), excellent breakout quality (13.0/13), and solid volume confirmation (12.0/12) yielding an overall score of 81.88. Support anchors at $23.03 (down 26.21% from entry), while a conservative breakout target sits at $32.81—just 5.1% upside. Volume ratio of 1.33x average indicates institutional accumulation supporting the breakout thesis.

FIG reported Q4 2025 revenue of $303.8 million, up 40% year-over-year, beating analyst consensus of $293.15 million by 3.6%, with adjusted EPS of $0.08 beating estimates by $0.01. The company projects 2026 revenue of $1.366–$1.374 billion, representing approximately 30% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Most impressively, net revenue retention for $10,000+ ARR customers reached 136%, its highest level in ten quarters. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest made a large purchase yesterday, buying $11.7 million worth ($477,400 shares), aligning with sector recovery in software. Management highlighted AI monetization as a growth catalyst, with seat-plus-consumption AI credit revenue formally launching in March 2026. Analyst sentiment is mixed: Morgan Stanley noted strong positioning in the AI cycle despite broader sector concerns, citing rising AI tooling usage, partnerships with AI companies, and multiple monetization avenues.

The ascending triangle breakout requires sustained volume above $30.56 resistance to validate the pattern. Historical data suggests this setup targets $32.81 conservatively, but momentum could extend higher given 73.71% win probability and strong institutional positioning. Revenue inflection from AI credit monetization beginning in March 2026 could provide additional upside catalyst. Invalidation triggers on close below support at $23.03, representing approximately 26% downside risk. Breakout confirmation requires continuation above $32.81 with relative volume maintaining above 1.25x average—any retreat below $30.56 on declining volume negates pattern setup.

Broad investor concerns about AI disruption of software have sparked a sector sell-off, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down more than 20% year-to-date. Bank of America analysts warn shares could face pressure until tangible AI revenue disclosure occurs, given lingering bearish sentiment on software apps. FIG reported a GAAP net loss of $226.6 million in Q4 2025 (versus $33.1 million profit in Q4 2024), driven by stock-based compensation charges. Next earnings date is March 20, 2026—only 22 days away—creating binary event risk. RSI of 62.45 shows neutral momentum, not overbought. The stock remains 78% below its 52-week high, creating volatility risk if AI monetization disappoints. Macro headwinds on software valuations persist despite company fundamentals.