PVH: Bull Flag detected on 10 Apr 2026
All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on .
Overall Score
77
of 100
Good
Win Probability
61%
Moderate
Reward / Risk
0.5
: 1
$0.95 reward
$-1.82 risk
Current Setup
PVH reported Q4 2025 results on March 31, 2026, triggering a sharp rally that has now consolidated into a bull flag pattern. Price sits at $91.09, just below the key_resistance at $91.56, having rallied 44.54% over one month and 18.98% in the past week. Structure score of 9.38 reflects weak flag formation, but the breakout score of 13.0 is solid—volume ratio of 1.14x confirms institutional participation. The pattern sits 53.8% above the 52-week low, with the 61% win_probability suggesting historical viability. The bull flag indicates buyers are pausing within a confirmed uptrend before the next leg higher.
Stock Context
PVH's CEO cited strength in Calvin Klein and TOMMY HILFIGER brands and beat Q4 guidance across revenue, operating margin and EPS on a non-GAAP basis. EPS reached $3.82, surpassing the forecasted $3.30, with revenue of $2.51 billion exceeding expectations of $2.43 billion. The company started 2026 with positive momentum and expects DTC growth in both brands across all regions for the full year. However, Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $1.65-$1.80 came in significantly below the consensus estimate of $2.39, creating near-term earnings pressure. Goldman Sachs raised their target to $93.00 with a buy rating on April 2nd, supporting the breakout setup. Tommy Hilfiger partnered with NFL star Travis Kelce as a brand ambassador, representing positive brand momentum.
What to Expect
A successful breakout above the $91.56 resistance would target the conservative measured move of $95.64, offering 5.0% upside with 61% historical win probability. Volume confirmation is critical—the pattern requires sustained volume above 1.36M shares (30-day average at 1.36M) to validate a breakout. The invalidation level sits at key_support of $69.15, representing a 24.1% downside risk. Given the elevated RSI of 86.79 (well overbought), any breakout must be accompanied by consolidation or pullback to cool momentum, else the pattern risks failing from exhaustion. A close above $91.56 on elevated volume would signal the flag is complete.
Risk Factors
PVH issued Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $1.65-$1.80 versus consensus of $2.39, a miss of 26-31%, signaling near-term earnings pressure weighs on the setup. The company faces an estimated $195 million gross impact to 2026 EBIT from tariffs, approximately $3.30 per share, partially offsetting structural improvements. Management noted wholesale caution and front-loaded marketing will weigh on margins and early-2026 earnings. The RSI at 86.79 is extremely overbought, leaving minimal room for continued upside without a pullback. Weiss Ratings downgraded PVH from hold to sell on April 1st, providing dissenting analyst view. Beta of 1.73 amplifies volatility risk; a 5% market correction would translate to 8.65% downside, easily triggering the flag invalidation.
Sources:
PVH Corp. Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Above Guidance; Provides 2026 Outlook
·
Earnings call transcript: PVH Corp exceeds Q4 2026 earnings expectations By Investing.com
·
PVH (NYSE:PVH) Issues Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance - Daily Political
·
News
·
PVH (NYSE:PVH) Issues Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance - Ticker Report
·
PVH Corp. Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Above Guidance; Provides 2026 Outlook - FDRA
·
Tommy Hilfiger Scores Big with Travis Kelce Partnership
·
PVH Corp Earnings Call: Tariffs Test Brand Momentum - TipRanks.com
·
PVH Corp. Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Above Guidance; Provides 2026 Outlook
·
PVH Corp. to Host Conference Call to Discuss Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Earnings Results
·
Earnings call transcript: PVH Corp exceeds Q4 2026 earnings expectations By Investing.com
·
PVH (NYSE:PVH) Issues Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance - Daily Political
·
PVH Corp. Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Above Guidance; Provides 2026 Outlook
·
PVH (NYSE:PVH) Issues Q1 2026 Earnings Guidance - Ticker Report
·
PVH Corp. Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings Above Guidance; Provides 2026 Outlook
·
PVH (PVH) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 $PVH
·
PVH Stock Jumps as Earnings Smash Expectations - TipRanks.com
·
PVH Corp Earnings Call: Tariffs Test Brand Momentum - TipRanks.com
·
PVH (PVH) Valuation Check After Q4 Beat And 2026 Outlook Lift Brand Momentum - Simply Wall St News
·
PVH beats Q4 guidance, flags tariff pressure in 2026 outlook
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bullish
0.90
-1.0
0
+1.0
Industrials Sector
Bullish
0.86
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Three White Soldiers
3 days in pattern
Weak
25.2
Breakaway Gap
30 days in pattern
Good
32.0
Overall Score
33
of 40
Pattern Quality
18
of 20
Setup
11
of 20
R/R
15
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
9
of 15
Structure
13
of 13
Breakout
11
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
86.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
+2.38
Strong Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
107.2%
Upper Band
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.41
High
ATR %
4.2%
Medium
Beta
1.73
High Beta
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
1.14x
Average
20-Day Avg Vol
1.4M
shares / day
Current Volume
1.6M
shares traded
Price Levels
Target
$95.64
Resistance
$91.56
52W High
$91.56
Current
$91.09
Stop Loss
$80.16
Support
$69.15
52W Low
$59.23
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.