SSL: Ascending Triangle detected on 11 Mar 2026
Overall Score
84
of 100
Strong
Win Probability
72%
High
Reward / Risk
1.1
: 1
$0.14 reward
$-0.13 risk
Current Setup
An ascending triangle is forming in SSL after a board change on 16 February 2026. The pattern displays solid technical structure with support established at $8.82 and resistance at $9.62, just above the current price of $9.55. Structure score of 13.75/15 and breakout score of 11.7/13 indicate clean pattern edges and decisive upside momentum building. Volume score of 10.2/12 shows adequate participation, though slightly subdued relative volume at 0.95x 20-day average suggests room for confirmation. The 72.26% win probability reflects a validated setup with three consecutive bullish patterns detected (inverse H&S on Jan 8, bull flag on Feb 5) reinforcing conviction.
Stock Context
Sasol reported positive free cash flow for the first time in four years in H1 2026. The company achieved a Southern Africa value chain cash breakeven price of USD53 per barrel, ahead of the full-year target range of USD60-USD55. The destoning plant reached beneficial operation in December, improving coal quality, and Sasol secured an additional 300 megawatts of renewable energy. However, Brent crude declined 14% year-on-year with a stronger rand contributing to a 17% decline in the rand oil price. Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Sasol to Equal-weight from Overweight, warning that recent share gains are at risk. The energy sector trades in bullish regime (0.51 score), providing favorable tailwinds for this pattern breakout.
What to Expect
On successful breakout above $9.62 resistance, the measured move target is $10.03 (conservative), implying a 4.9% upside from current levels. The pattern requires sustained volume confirmation above 2.7M shares (historical 20-day average) to validate the move. Invalidation occurs at $8.82, the key support level—a close below this price signals pattern failure and reversal of setup. Historical precedent shows the 72.26% win probability translates to strong directional conviction, with breakouts typically extending toward measured targets within 3-5 trading sessions. RSI at 68.63 borders overbought territory, requiring monitoring for exhaustion signals.
Risk Factors
Goldman Sachs downgraded Sasol from Buy to Neutral, and Morgan Stanley recently downgraded from Overweight. Brent crude fell 14% year-over-year and a stronger rand impacted earnings. Softer chemical pricing and stronger rand outlook led to revised guidance for International Chemicals. Start-up delays at the CTT gas-to-power project in Mozambique affected PSA volumes, resulting in impairment. RSI at 68.63 signals near-overbought conditions with limited room for additional momentum without pullback. Macro environment remains volatile; management characterized conditions as volatile and challenging. Stock trades only 1.14% below 52-week highs, limiting upside surprise potential.
Sources:
Sasol Limited (SSL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
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SSL - Sasol Latest Stock News & Market Updates
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Sasol Limited (SSL) Latest Stock News & Headlines - Yahoo Finance
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Sasol Ltd (NYSE:SSL) Market Cap & Net Worth: $5.48 Billion | #2760 Global Ranking, #1895 in USA | marketcap.company
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Sasol Ltd (SSL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Positive Free Cash Flow and Strategic ...
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Sasol Limited (SSL) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis | Seeking Alpha
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Sasol (SSL) Stock Price, News & Analysis $SSL
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SSL: Sasol Ltd - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC
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Sasol Stock Price Today | NYSE: SSL Live - Investing.com
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Sasol Market Cap – March 2026 Update | Capital.com
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Financial Results | Financial Results
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Sasol Ltd. (SSL) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue and Operating Cash Flow Rise but EPS Falls | Quiver Quantitative
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Earnings call transcript: Sasol sees positive cash flow but faces impairments in H1 2026 By Investing.com
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Sasol 2026 Company Profile: Stock Performance & Earnings | PitchBook
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Sasol Limited (NYSE:SSL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - Insider Monkey
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Sasol Limited 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:SSL) 2026-02-23 | Seeking Alpha
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Sasol H1 Earnings Call Highlights - Markets Daily
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Sasol Ltd (SSL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Positive Free Cash Flow and Strategic ...
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Sasol Ltd. American Depositary Shares (SSL) Earnings Report Dates & Earnings Forecasts | Nasdaq
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Sasol H1 Earnings Call Highlights - Daily Political
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Neutral
-0.18
-1.0
0
+1.0
Energy Sector
Bullish
0.51
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Bull Flag
22 days in pattern
Moderate
27.7
Inverse Head And Shoulders
19 days in pattern
Moderate
27.0
Overall Score
36
of 40
Pattern Quality
20
of 20
Setup
13
of 20
R/R
15
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
14
of 15
Structure
12
of 13
Breakout
10
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
68.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.04
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
92.7%
Upper Band
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.65
Very High
ATR %
5.6%
High
Beta
0.99
Market
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
0.95x
Average
20-Day Avg Vol
2.7M
shares / day
Current Volume
2.6M
shares traded
Price Levels
Target
$10.03
52W High
$9.66
Resistance
$9.62
Current
$9.55
Support
$8.82
Stop Loss
$8.49
52W Low
$2.78
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.