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CXW TROX RKLB LINC PL RFIL NEXT IRDM VG TRT

VG: Ascending Triangle detected on 18 Mar 2026

Overall Score

84 of 100

Strong

Win Probability

72%

High

Reward / Risk

1.1 : 1

$0.20 reward $-0.18 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Current Setup

VG is forming an ascending triangle pattern with a strong structure score of 13.75/15 and healthy breakout signal at 13.0/13. Price currently trades at $12.97, wedged between key support at $11.09 and resistance at $13.47. The pattern reflects a 61-day post-collapse recovery from the December lows, with the stock now up 111.93% over three months. Volume support is moderate at 9.0/12, with current volume at 14.6M shares (67% of the 20-day average), suggesting caution around breakout confirmation. The overall score of 83.75 and win probability of 72.38% indicate solid technical setup.

Stock Context

Venture Global announced FID and financial close for Phase 2 of CP2 LNG on March 13, 2026, with RBC Capital raising its price target to $14 from $11. Scotiabank raised its price target to $11 from $9 on March 18, 2026. The company reported FY2025 revenue of $13.8B (up 177%), net income of $2.3B (up 53%), and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $6.3B (up 198%). Guidance for 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is $5.20B–$5.80B with Plaquemines Phase I COD targeted in Q4 2026. According to 13 analysts, the average rating for VG stock is "Buy". The timing coincides with U.S. LNG exporters benefiting from Iran conflict, though Q1 2026 guidance faces headwinds from Winter Storm Fern impacts and margin compression.

What to Expect

A successful breakout above $13.47 resistance would target the conservative measured move of $13.62, with additional upside potential if momentum sustains toward the prior 52-week high of $19.50 (currently -33.11% away). Breakout confirmation requires volume expansion above the 20-day average of 21.8M shares, as current 14.6M is well below threshold. Invalidation occurs at the key support level of $11.09, a 14.5% downside risk from current price. The 72.38% win probability suggests historical patterns similar to this setup close more often than not, though RSI at 65.65 indicates near-overbought conditions requiring discipline on entry.

Risk Factors

Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance came below Wall Street expectations due to Winter Storm Fern impacts and margin compression. Plaquemines Phase 1 has not yet reached substantial completion, with commissioning processes that may cause production interruptions, creating a wider production range for 2026. Q4 net income was negatively affected by $330 million higher interest expense and $476 million negative impact from interest rate swaps versus prior year. The company faces a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.85 and leverage ratio of 8.8. Beta of 1.35 and 20-day volatility of 93.81% amplify downside acceleration risk. Upcoming earnings call on May 13, 2026 poses potential catalyst risk if operational ramp-up disappoints.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Neutral -0.18

-1.0 0 +1.0

Utilities Sector

Bullish 0.60

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

20 days in pattern

Moderate 29.6

Bullish Engulfing

2 days in pattern

Weak 23.0

Rounding Bottom

180 days in pattern

Exceptional 38.7

Post Collapse Recovery

61 days in pattern

Moderate 28.0

Overall Score

36 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

20 of 20

Exceptional

Setup

13 of 20

Moderate

R/R

15 of 18

Strong

Context

Pattern Quality Score

14 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

9 of 12

Good

Volume

Recent Performance

+14.0%

+13.4%

+38.7%

+111.9%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

65.7

Neutral

MACD Histogram

+0.12

Bullish

Bollinger Band Position

84.2%

Upper Zone

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.94

Very High

ATR %

8.9%

High

Beta

1.35

Above Mkt

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

0.67x

Below Avg

20-Day Avg Vol

21.8M

shares / day

Current Volume

14.6M

shares traded

Price Levels

52W High

$19.39

Target

$13.62

Resistance

$13.47

Current

$12.97

Stop Loss

$11.53

Support

$11.09

52W Low

$5.71

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.