‹ News

PARR GPRE CRK LYB CNR VG MRX SRZN AZ ACDC

CNR: Ascending Triangle detected on 30 Mar 2026

Overall Score

78 of 100

Good

Win Probability

63%

Moderate

Reward / Risk

0.9 : 1

$1.76 reward $-1.87 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Current Setup

CNR broke through $113 resistance on March 23-26, peaking at $113.65, now trading at $113.23 in an ascending triangle pattern. Structure score of 15.0 reflects a textbook setup: support at $108 and resistance at $115 providing clear tactical levels. Breakout quality (13.0) signals conviction, but volume trailing at 7.8 and relative volume of 0.85 suggest modest participation. RSI at 68.73 indicates near-overbought conditions. Pattern target is $120.19—a 6.1% measured move from current prices. Win probability stands at 62.65%.

Stock Context

Recent geopolitical tensions and rising oil and natural gas prices have driven coal demand, with Middle East conflict pushing investors toward coal as an alternative energy source. UBS lifted its price target to $115 from $109 on March 24, 2026, reiterating a Buy rating citing expected earnings improvement and stronger thermal coal prices. CNR resumed longwall mining at Leer South and completed transition to new seam at West Elk, entering 2026 at targeted production rates. However, Q4 2025 showed revenue of $1,042.47 million but a net loss of $78.98 million, highlighting margin pressures despite strong sales. The sector regime is bullish (0.85), but broader market regime is bearish (-0.56).

What to Expect

A successful breakout above $113.16 resistance with volume confirmation would target $120.19 conservatively, aligning with pattern projection. Critical invalidation occurs at $107.66 support—a 5.1% downside risk. Investors view this as a recovery play with additional potential if commodity prices remain supportive. Historical win probability of 62.65% suggests better-than-coin-flip odds, but breakout volume at 0.85x average signals sellers may emerge near technical levels. Sustained move above $115 would confirm UBS's $115 target and open path toward structural resistance.

Risk Factors

Critical warning: Director Richard Navarre and other executives engaged in insider stock sales in March 2026, signaling reduced confidence in near-term recovery execution. Operational progress at Leer South and cost control at Itmann remain central catalysts, and the biggest risk is mine improvements fail to translate into sustainably better margins. In March 2026, Leer South operations were halted and resumed following combustion-related activity. Volume ratio of 0.85 trailing 20-day average suggests weak institutional demand. RSI at 68.73 approaches overbought; momentum may fade if geopolitical tailwinds ease. Reliance on coal amid global decarbonization trends exposes the company to structural demand decline and regulatory headwinds longer-term.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Bearish -0.57

-1.0 0 +1.0

Energy Sector

Bullish 0.85

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

20 days in pattern

Moderate 28.3

Overall Score

36 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

20 of 20

Exceptional

Setup

11 of 20

Fair

R/R

11 of 18

Moderate

Context

Pattern Quality Score

15 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

8 of 12

Moderate

Volume

Recent Performance

+5.7%

+14.5%

+33.1%

+27.2%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

68.7

Neutral

MACD Histogram

+1.37

Strong Bullish

Bollinger Band Position

92.3%

Upper Band

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.55

Very High

ATR %

4.8%

Medium

Beta

0.54

Below Mkt

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

0.85x

Average

20-Day Avg Vol

1.3M

shares / day

Current Volume

1.1M

shares traded

Price Levels

Target

$120.19

52W High

$113.56

Current

$113.23

Resistance

$113.16

Support

$107.66

Stop Loss

$100.64

52W Low

$57.89

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.