FIGR: Bull Flag detected on 28 Aug 2026

FIGR is forming a bull flag pattern on strong recent momentum, with the stock gaining 52.26% over the past month following record Q2 consumer loan marketplace volume of $4.3 billion (up 132% YoY) and net income rising 192% to $87.4 million. The pattern shows solid structure (14.7/15), adequate breakout potential (10.4/13), and moderate volume confirmation (11.5/12), yielding an overall score of 76.6. Price consolidating between support at 36.11 and resistance at 39.68, with current price at 38.02 near the upper band. The 72.58% win probability and bullish regime (score 0.61) suggest healthy pattern completion potential.

FIGR reported Q2 2026 earnings on August 13 with EPS of $0.37, beating estimates by $0.12, and revenue of $218.45M, exceeding expectations by $6.6M. Figure Connect tokenized loan marketplace now represents 65% of total volume (up from 56% prior quarter), driving toward capital-light fee-based revenue, with adjusted EBITDA margins reaching 55%, progressing toward a 60% medium-term target. The Kiavi acquisition is on track to close by year-end, expected to add 40% to volume and $100M of EBITDA with a sub-four-year payback period. Despite strong fundamentals, the stock shows year-to-date decline of 28.14%, indicating recent earnings sparked 9.82% 7-day recovery. This technical recovery from fundamental strength is driving the bull flag formation.

Successful bull flag breakout above 39.68 resistance would project toward conservative target of 39.27, though measured move upside extends further given strong volume recovery potential. Pattern invalidation occurs at support level of 36.11—a close below this level signals flag failure and suggests consolidation may resolve lower. RSI at 61.62 provides room to accelerate without overbought extremes (70+ threshold). The 72.58% win probability historically favors upside breakouts from this pattern type. Volume confirmation critical: current 0.72 relative volume below 20-day average should strengthen on breakout attempt. Pattern structure suggests 3-5 day timeframe to resolution.

Insider selling pressure present: 51 insider transactions in past 6 months comprised entirely of sales with zero purchases, signaling potential conviction weakness among management despite strong earnings. GuruFocus detected 3 warning signs with FIGR, though specifics not disclosed. Beta of 1.4 indicates 40% higher volatility than market; with ATR at 2.74 (7.21% of price), whipsaws are elevated. Take rate compression risk exists as CEO confirmed lower end of 3.5%-4% range is realistic for coming quarter due to Figure Connect mix shift. Volume ratio of 0.72 below average suggests weak institutional conviction supporting this rally. No immediate earnings catalyst until Q3 results, leaving stock vulnerable to momentum reversal.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.