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AAOI PENN XRAY BVN DK DRD TIGO NG PPTA CRGY

PENN: Bullish Pennant detected on 2 Mar 2026

Overall Score

90 of 100

Exceptional

Win Probability

78%

High

Reward / Risk

2.8 : 1

$0.50 reward $-0.18 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Current Setup

PENN Entertainment is forming a bullish pennant as the company executes improving profitability trends across retail casinos and its interactive segment. At $15.64, the stock is consolidating near resistance at $15.68 with strong structure (13.75/15) and healthy breakout potential (13.0/13). Volume surges 2.4x above average at 12.75M shares, suggesting conviction behind the move. The company delivered solid Q4 retail EBITDAR of $456.4M with a 32.3% margin, though inclement weather in December reduced results by approximately $7 million. The pattern implies a measured move target of $16.67, with key support anchored at $11.65. Overall quality scores 89.55/98, reflecting a high-probability setup.

Stock Context

PENN reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.07 (beating estimates by $0.30) and revenue of $1.81 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year. Management highlighted catalysts including the Aurora opening, the Columbus hotel tower launch, continued ramp at Joliet and M Resort, and achieving interactive breakeven in 2026. The rebranded theScore Bet sportsbook achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in December and management expects the interactive segment to reach breakeven adjusted EBITDA in 2026, a ~$268M year-over-year improvement. Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $17 and Wells Fargo upgraded PENN from Underweight to Equal Weight with a $16 target. This earnings beat and analyst upgrades directly drove the recent 20%+ rally, creating the pennant breakout opportunity.

What to Expect

A successful breakout above $15.68 resistance would target $16.67 conservatively, with potential extension toward analyst price targets near $17-$19. The consensus target price is $19.29, indicating upside of 23.31%. Volume confirmation is critical—the 2.4x relative volume provides a solid foundation, but breakout momentum should sustain above 1.5M daily shares. Invalidation occurs at key support of $11.65, a 26% downside risk. 10 analysts recommend buying with an overall rating of Buy and +20.73% upside potential. Win probability of 77.93% reflects strong fundamentals supporting the technical setup.

Risk Factors

PENN has a beta of 1.39, suggesting its stock is 39% more volatile than the S&P 500, which amplifies downside in market corrections. Elevated debt levels could inflate financing costs for future renovations and investments. Increased competition in the interactive segment from major operators like FanDuel and DraftKings threatens the interactive turnaround narrative. Adverse weather impacts retail performance, regulatory uncertainties exist in new markets like Alberta, and potential supply pressures loom in key markets such as Bossier City and Council Bluffs. Next earnings report is April 30, 2026, providing a near-term catalyst window. RSI at 64.15 approaches overbought (>70), and the 2-week gain of 26% suggests momentum may face consolidation resistance.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Neutral 0.14

-1.0 0 +1.0

Consumer Discretionary Sector

Bullish 0.24

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

15 days in pattern

Good 32.6

Breakaway Gap

30 days in pattern

Moderate 29.0

Post Collapse Recovery

8 days in pattern

Moderate 29.0

Overall Score

38 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

20 of 20

Exceptional

Setup

17 of 20

Strong

R/R

15 of 18

Strong

Context

Pattern Quality Score

14 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

11 of 12

Exceptional

Volume

Recent Performance

+20.1%

+26.0%

+18.0%

+7.3%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

64.2

Neutral

MACD Histogram

+0.26

Bullish

Bollinger Band Position

121.1%

Upper Band

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.95

Very High

ATR %

5.7%

High

Beta

1.22

Above Mkt

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

2.40x

Very High

20-Day Avg Vol

5.3M

shares / day

Current Volume

12.7M

shares traded

Price Levels

52W High

$22.13

Target

$16.67

Resistance

$15.68

Current

$15.64

Stop Loss

$14.22

Support

$11.65

52W Low

$11.65

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.