DK: Ascending Triangle detected on 2 Mar 2026

Delek US Holdings is forming an ascending triangle pattern at $38.11, with declining resistance converging toward support at $34.65. Structure scores 15.0/15, indicating textbook symmetry and lower-high formations. Volume ratio of 1.87x confirms above-average participation. The breakout score of 13.0/13 reflects clean price action near the apex. RSI at 68.39 shows strong momentum without extreme overbought conditions. The measured move target stands at $40.03, representing roughly 5% upside from current levels.

Delek US operates as an independent refiner in a bullish energy sector regime (0.4 score). Recent search findings confirm crude oil prices remain elevated heading into Q1 2026, supporting downstream refining margins. The stock has surged 32.93% over the past month and 257.58% from its 52-week low, suggesting institutional repositioning into cyclical energy plays amid discussions of tighter global supply. Multiple prior patterns—a cup-handle formed in November 2025 (33.9 quality score) and a bull flag from January 2026 (35.05 quality score)—indicate sustained accumulation. The sector regime supports continued strength, though the overall market remains neutral.

A successful breakout above $37.13 resistance should trigger a move toward the $40.03 conservative target, anchored by the triangle's measured move. Volume confirmation is critical—the current 1.87x ratio needs to sustain through the breakout. Historical win probability of 75.99% aligns with ascending triangle breakout success rates. Invalidation occurs on a close below $34.65 support, which would signal pattern failure and potential capitulation to lower price levels.

RSI at 68.39 sits in the upper range, flagging potential near-term exhaustion despite not reaching overbought extremes above 70. Beta of 1.27 means Delek amplifies broader market moves—any pullback in risk appetite could trigger sharp declines. The stock's exceptional 3-month performance masks vulnerability: energy is cyclical, and crude prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical shifts or recession concerns. ATR at 5.33% volatility indicates $2.03 average daily swings, creating whipsaw risk around pattern levels. No recent earnings or catalyst dates found in search results, but refiners face margin compression risk if crude weakens unexpectedly.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.