QLYS: Rounding Bottom detected on 18 Jun 2026

Qualys is forming a rounding bottom pattern following prior ascending triangle and symmetrical triangle formations, indicating a period of consolidation near demand. The stock trades at $112.18, positioned 50.56% above its 52-week low of $74.51 (key support) and 27.84% below the 52-week high. The rounding bottom displays moderate structure (14.0/15), adequate breakout momentum (12.0/13), and weak volume confirmation (9.0/12), resulting in an overall quality score of 68.0 with 64.72% win probability. Resistance sits at $132.33. Current volume shows a 1.2x ratio above the 20-day average of 676,239 shares, suggesting emerging institutional interest but not yet climactic accumulation.

Qualys reported Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, delivering 10% year-over-year revenue growth to $175.6 million and raising full-year 2026 guidance to $721-$727 million. The company reported non-GAAP net income of $1.95 per diluted share with Adjusted EBITDA of $83.3 million (47% of revenues). Management highlighted strong adoption of the Enterprise TruRisk Management solution and early engagement from the new QFlex product, positioning the company in the expanding pre-breach risk management category. The Technology sector shows bullish regime (0.45 score), and analyst consensus places a Hold rating with a $110 price target—notably below the current $112.18 level. The stock has gained 14.49% over one month, reflecting recent positive momentum following the earnings beat.

A confirmed breakout above resistance at $132.33 would validate the rounding bottom and target a measured move to $117.04 (conservative target)—representing a 4.3% upside move. Volume confirmation would be critical; historically, successful breakouts from rounding bottoms require volume exceeding 1.5x average (current at 1.2x). Invalidation occurs below $74.51, where the key support breaks and all three detected patterns fail simultaneously. The 64.72% win probability suggests slightly better-than-coin-flip odds, consistent with the pattern quality score of 68.0. MACD histogram remains slightly negative at -0.1219, indicating momentum has not yet fully shifted bullish.

The most recent analyst rating is Hold at $110.00, implying downside to the current price if sentiment shifts. RSI at 64.08 is approaching overbought territory (>70), warning of potential consolidation or pullback without volume confirmation. Operating cash flow declined 13% year-over-year to $95.3 million in Q1, signaling operational leverage pressure despite revenue growth and raising questions about cash generation sustainability. Beta of only 0.08 indicates QLYS is decoupled from broader market volatility, making it potentially vulnerable to company-specific disappointment. No Q2 earnings date has been announced in search results, but given Q1 results on May 5, the next earnings likely occur in early August 2026—meaning the pattern formation occurs in a relative information vacuum. The Technology sector's bullish regime score of only 0.45 suggests moderate rather than strong tailwinds.