SEDG: Ascending Triangle detected on 1 Apr 2026
Overall Score
74
of 100
Good
Win Probability
63%
Moderate
Reward / Risk
1.1
: 1
$0.86 reward
$-0.79 risk
Current Setup
SEDG is forming an ascending triangle pattern with well-defined structure (15.0/15). Current price at $51.05 sits above key support at $52.58 but below immediate resistance at $53.05. The pattern shows moderate volume confirmation (10.2/12) with breakout strength at 13.0/13, generating a 74.2 overall score and 63% win probability. RSI at 61.69 indicates neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. The stock has gained 7.09% in one week and 25.74% in one month, reflecting the post-earnings momentum from late February's positive guidance and recent Nexis product launch announcement.
Stock Context
SolarEdge reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.14 on February 18, 2026, beating analyst expectations of -$0.39 by 64.10%. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $1.18 billion, up 31% year-over-year, with GAAP gross margin improving to 16.6% from negative 97.3% in 2024. SolarEdge introduced a next-gen solar and storage system in Germany on March 19, 2026, tapping into the booming residential market. Bank of America upgraded the stock to Neutral and increased the price target to $40, though this target sits below the current $51.05 price. Management reaffirmed Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $290M–$320M with non-GAAP gross margin of 20%–24%. The stock has surged 74.89% over three months on improving profitability path and strategic product initiatives.
What to Expect
An ascending triangle breakout from resistance at $53.05 would confirm upside momentum. The measured move target of $54.19 (conservative) represents approximately 6% upside from current price. Historical performance shows 63% win probability for this pattern structure. Volume confirmation is key—breakout should exceed recent daily averages of 3.6M shares. Invalidation occurs if price closes below key support at $52.58, which would signal triangle failure and potential reversal. Beta of 1.56 indicates elevated volatility, meaning breakout moves could be sharp in either direction.
Risk Factors
Investors must believe policy support, storage adoption, and channel normalization can restore profitable growth despite recent volatility and leadership turnover. CFO Asaf Alperovitz will step down by June 9, 2026, though the company stated the departure is unrelated to financial or accounting disagreements. Analyst consensus price target is $20.84, far below current levels, with bearish targets as low as $7.00 versus bullish targets at $35.00. Pricing pressure and policy uncertainty could influence whether recent guidance proves sustainable or temporary. Sector regime is bearish (-0.49) and broader market regime is bearish (-0.46), creating headwinds. Volume ratio of 0.85 shows below-average trading activity, potentially limiting breakout conviction.
Sources:
Press Releases | SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.
·
SolarEdge Rides Momentum with New Launch and Market Changes
·
Does SolarEdge (SEDG) CFO Transition and Reaffirmed Outlook Clarify Its Long-Term Leadership Stability?
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SolarEdge: SEDG Stock Price Quote & News | Robinhood
·
SolarEdge’s New Innovations Shake Up Market, Sparks Optimism
·
SEDG - Solaredge Technologies Inc Latest Stock News & Market Updates
·
SolarEdge Launches New Solar Platform Amid CFO Departure
·
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
Assessing SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Valuation After Earnings Guidance And WeaveGrid Partnership - Simply Wall St News
·
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Is Up 10.8% After Narrower Losses And 2026 Revenue Guidance Lift Sentiment - Simply Wall St News
·
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Earnings: Latest Report, Earnings Call & Financials
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Why Is SolarEdge (SEDG) Up 30.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
·
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Earnings Report: Key Numbers & Transcript Summary
·
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (SEDG) Earnings Report Dates & Earnings Forecasts | Nasdaq
·
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 $SEDG
·
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Earnings Dates & Report | Seeking Alpha
·
Solaredge Technologies Earnings Dates, Reports, Calls 2015-2025 (NASDAQ: SEDG) | WallStreetZen
·
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) Earnings Report Date & ...
·
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports - TipRanks.com
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bearish
-0.46
-1.0
0
+1.0
Technology Sector
Bearish
-0.50
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Bull Flag
16 days in pattern
Moderate
29.0
Overall Score
38
of 40
Pattern Quality
17
of 20
Setup
11
of 20
R/R
8
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
15
of 15
Structure
13
of 13
Breakout
10
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
61.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.58
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
80.6%
Upper Zone
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
1.04
Very High
ATR %
8.0%
High
Beta
1.56
High Beta
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
0.85x
Average
20-Day Avg Vol
3.6M
shares / day
Current Volume
3.0M
shares traded
Price Levels
Target
$54.19
52W High
$53.28
Resistance
$53.05
Support
$52.58
Current
$51.05
Stop Loss
$46.40
52W Low
$11.00
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.