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SEDG: Ascending Triangle detected on 1 Apr 2026

All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on 1 Apr 2026.

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On 1 Apr 2026, our scan flagged SEDG as a ascending triangle setup scoring 74 out of 98 (Good tier), with a 63% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 1.1 to 1 reward to risk ratio. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a 10 trading day hold, not an intraday move. At $51.05, the conservative target is $54.19 with a stop at $46.40.

Overall Score

74 of 98

Good

Win Probability

63%

Moderate

Reward / Risk

1.1 : 1

$0.86 reward $-0.79 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Swing Trading Plan

Entry

$51.05

Target

$54.19

Stop Loss

$46.40

Holding Period

Up to 10 trading days

Win Probability

63%

Current Setup

SEDG is forming an ascending triangle pattern with well-defined structure (15.0/15). Current price at $51.05 sits above key support at $52.58 but below immediate resistance at $53.05. The pattern shows moderate volume confirmation (10.2/12) with breakout strength at 13.0/13, generating a 74.2 overall score and 63% win probability. RSI at 61.69 indicates neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. The stock has gained 7.09% in one week and 25.74% in one month, reflecting the post-earnings momentum from late February's positive guidance and recent Nexis product launch announcement.

Stock Context

SolarEdge reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.14 on February 18, 2026, beating analyst expectations of -$0.39 by 64.10%. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $1.18 billion, up 31% year-over-year, with GAAP gross margin improving to 16.6% from negative 97.3% in 2024. SolarEdge introduced a next-gen solar and storage system in Germany on March 19, 2026, tapping into the booming residential market. Bank of America upgraded the stock to Neutral and increased the price target to $40, though this target sits below the current $51.05 price. Management reaffirmed Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $290M–$320M with non-GAAP gross margin of 20%–24%. The stock has surged 74.89% over three months on improving profitability path and strategic product initiatives.

What to Expect

An ascending triangle breakout from resistance at $53.05 would confirm upside momentum. The measured move target of $54.19 (conservative) represents approximately 6% upside from current price. Historical performance shows 63% win probability for this pattern structure. Volume confirmation is key—breakout should exceed recent daily averages of 3.6M shares. Invalidation occurs if price closes below key support at $52.58, which would signal triangle failure and potential reversal. Beta of 1.56 indicates elevated volatility, meaning breakout moves could be sharp in either direction.

Risk Factors

Investors must believe policy support, storage adoption, and channel normalization can restore profitable growth despite recent volatility and leadership turnover. CFO Asaf Alperovitz will step down by June 9, 2026, though the company stated the departure is unrelated to financial or accounting disagreements. Analyst consensus price target is $20.84, far below current levels, with bearish targets as low as $7.00 versus bullish targets at $35.00. Pricing pressure and policy uncertainty could influence whether recent guidance proves sustainable or temporary. Sector regime is bearish (-0.49) and broader market regime is bearish (-0.46), creating headwinds. Volume ratio of 0.85 shows below-average trading activity, potentially limiting breakout conviction.

How We Find and Score This Setup

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SEDG a good swing trade?

SEDG scored 74 out of 98 on our ascending triangle scan, with a 63% historical win probability over the standard 10 trading day hold. Good setup based on our systematic scoring.

What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?

The setup's reference price is $51.05, with a conservative target of $54.19 and a stop loss at $46.40.

What would invalidate this ascending triangle setup?

A close below the stop loss at $46.40 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.

How is the win probability calculated?

Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical ascending triangle setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Bearish -0.46

-1.0 0 +1.0

Technology Sector

Bearish -0.50

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

16 days in pattern

Moderate 29.0

Overall Score

38 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

17 of 20

Strong

Setup

11 of 20

Fair

R/R

8 of 18

Weak

Context

Pattern Quality Score

15 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

10 of 12

Strong

Volume

Recent Performance

+7.1%

+19.1%

+25.7%

+74.9%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

61.7

Neutral

MACD Histogram

+0.58

Bullish

Bollinger Band Position

80.6%

Upper Zone

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

1.04

Very High

ATR %

8.0%

High

Beta

1.56

High Beta

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

0.85x

Average

20-Day Avg Vol

3.6M

shares / day

Current Volume

3.0M

shares traded

Price Levels

Target

$54.19

52W High

$53.28

Resistance

$53.05

Support

$52.58

Current

$51.05

Stop Loss

$46.40

52W Low

$11.00

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.