SOC: Rounding Bottom detected on 27 Mar 2026

Sable Offshore forms a rounding bottom with post-collapse recovery pattern, currently 88 days into formation as of March 27, 2026. Stock sits at $17.92 with structure score of 15.0/15, breakout score of 11.7/13, and volume score of 12.0/12, producing an overall score of 71.7/98 and win probability of 64.2%. The setup shows 52-week range spanning from $3.72 to $35.00, with current price 48.8% below the 52-week high yet 381.72% above the low. Key support sits at $3.72 with resistance at $21.80.

On March 14, 2026, Sable Offshore resumed hydrocarbon transportation through the Santa Ynez Pipeline System at the direction of the U.S. Secretary of Energy under the Defense Production Act. The company plans to restart commercial oil sales by April 1, 2026, aiming for output of about 50,000 barrels a day. Roth Capital raised price target to $24 from $22 on March 16, 2026. SOC shares are up over 100% month-to-date following the Defense Production Act ruling. Full-year 2025 results show $410.2 million net loss and $921.6 million short-term debt, though pipeline repairs completed and $295-$250 million raised via stock placements; senior term loan maturity extended to March 31, 2027 with 15% annual interest. The convergence of federal energy backing with March production restart creates powerful momentum for the recovery pattern.

The rounding bottom suggests accumulation near depression lows before directional breakout. Measured move target of $19.11 represents 6.5% upside from current price, with resistance at $21.80 offering secondary target. Daily high reached $18.38, confirming proximity to near-term resistance. A successful breakout requires volume confirmation above the 51% relative volume baseline. The invalidation level is support at $3.72—a break below would negate the recovery thesis. With 64.2% win probability, historical rounding bottom breakouts in this configuration suggest upside follow-through probability favors buyers, though stock remains volatile and recent lows of $15.81 (March 23) show quick pullback risk.

RSI at 70.29 signals overbought conditions, leaving little room for acceleration without consolidation. Next earnings report scheduled for May 8, 2026—two months away—provides extended window before fundamental validation. State Parks contested Sable's DPA rights on March 14, 2026, indicating ongoing legal/regulatory risk despite federal support. Beta of 2.0 creates elevated volatility; recent 1-month gain of 96.28% suggests extended valuation and mean-reversion risk. EPS (TTM) of -4.178 reflects ongoing losses, making stock dependent on execution of April 1 sales target. Volume ratio of 0.51x suggests below-average participation—breakout requires sustained buying interest. Geopolitical energy dynamics supporting the setup could reverse if macro sentiment shifts.