OEC: Rounding Bottom detected on 27 Mar 2026
All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on .
Browse all Rounding Bottom detections →On 27 Mar 2026, our scan flagged OEC as a rounding bottom setup scoring 73 out of 98 (Good tier), with a 64% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 0.74 to 1 risk to reward profile from the published levels. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a multi-day swing hold, not an intraday move. At $6.26, the conservative target is $6.68 with a stop at $5.69. A further breakout above resistance near $11.23 offers a larger move if momentum continues past the initial target.
Overall Score
73
of 98
Good
Win Probability
64%
Moderate
Trade R:R
0.74
: 1
$0.42 to target
$0.57 to stop
Swing Trading Plan
Entry
$6.26
Target
$6.68
Stop Loss
$5.69
Holding Period
2-7 trading days
Expected Return
+$0.05
Exp. Reward
+$0.23
Exp. Risk
-$0.18
Expected figures are probability-weighted from our historical pattern database; Trade R:R is measured from the entry, target and stop levels.
Current Setup
OEC is forming a rounding bottom pattern at $6.26, rebounding from lows near $4.31. The pattern exhibits a structure score of 13.75/15, breakout score of 13.0/13, and volume score of 10.8/12—indicating well-defined support, strong upside momentum, and elevated relative volume (1.43x average). The 95-day post-collapse recovery pattern shows moderate strength alongside three white soldiers formation (formed March 24), suggesting buyers are establishing control. RSI at 63.36 indicates controlled strength without overbought extremes. Breakout resistance sits at $11.23, with the rounding bottom targeting $6.68 conservatively.
Stock Context
Orion missed Q4 2025 earnings estimates by $0.26 EPS, reporting ($0.34) earnings per share versus consensus of ($0.08). UBS boosted its price target from $6.00 to $6.50 and gave a "neutral" rating on February 18th, while Wall Street Zen upgraded shares from sell to hold on March 27th. However, one analyst rates hold and four issue sell ratings. The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0207 per share, payable April 2, 2026. Orion appears at a cyclical low with three consecutive years of declining EBITDA through 2026. The La Porte conductive-carbon project was pushed to 2027 start, reducing 2026 capital expenditure. This recovery pattern emerges amid margin pressure and cyclical trough conditions.
What to Expect
A successful rounding bottom breakout above $11.23 would establish new swing highs and target the $6.68 conservative measure move within 4-8 weeks. Invalidation occurs below support at $4.31. Historical rounding bottom structures suggest 63.69% win probability based on provided data. Volume confirmation critical—the 1.43x relative volume ratio needs to persist through breakout. High beta (1.45) will amplify both upside moves and downside reversals. The pattern suggests 45-50% upside to resistance from current levels if structure holds.
Risk Factors
Zacks Research downgraded OEC to "strong sell" on February 25th, creating headwinds despite recent upgrade. JPMorgan cut its price target from $9.00 to $5.00 and maintains "underweight" rating—analyst consensus remains bearish. Beta of 1.45 amplifies sector volatility; with bearish industrial and chemicals regimes, macro pressure is elevated. The company has a quick ratio of 0.64 and debt-to-equity of 1.69, raising liquidity and leverage concerns. ATR volatility at 5.75% creates whipsaw risk for stop-placement. The pattern spans 95 days; extended recovery timeframes can lose momentum. No near-term earnings catalyst until Q1 2026 results—limited fundamental support for extended rally.
Sources:
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
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Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend | OEC Stock News
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Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend | Morningstar
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Orion (NYSE:OEC) Upgraded at Wall Street Zen - Markets Daily
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Orion S.A. Common Shares (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quotes, & Historic Data | Nasdaq
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Orion (OEC) Stock Price & Overview
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Orion Engineered Carbons SA Stock Price Today | NYSE: OEC Live - Investing.com
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Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend
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Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend
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Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis | Seeking Alpha
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Orion (OEC) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 $OEC
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Orion (NYSE:OEC) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.26 EPS - Ticker Report
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Orion (NYSE:OEC) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.26 EPS - Daily Political
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Orion S.A. Common Shares (OEC) Earnings Report Dates & Earnings Forecasts | Nasdaq
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Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend | OEC Stock News
·
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
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Quarterly Results | Orion Energy Systems
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Orion (OEC) Stock Price & Overview
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Orion (NYSE:OEC) Announces Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.26 EPS - Markets Daily
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Orion - Financials - Quarterly Results
How We Find and Score This Setup
We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OEC a good swing trade?
OEC scored 73 out of 98 on our rounding bottom scan, with a 64% historical win probability over a 2-7 trading days hold. Good setup based on our systematic scoring.
What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?
The setup's reference price is $6.26, with a conservative target of $6.68 and a stop loss at $5.69.
What would invalidate this rounding bottom setup?
A close below the stop loss at $5.69 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.
How is the win probability calculated?
Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical rounding bottom setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bearish
-0.33
-1.0
0
+1.0
Industrials Sector
Bearish
-0.20
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Bull Flag
38 days in pattern
Moderate
28.7
Three White Soldiers
3 days in pattern
Moderate
26.5
Post Collapse Recovery
95 days in pattern
Moderate
29.0
Overall Score
38
of 40
Pattern Quality
20
of 20
Setup
11
of 20
R/R
4
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
14
of 15
Structure
13
of 13
Breakout
11
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
63.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.15
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
116.0%
Upper Band
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.72
Very High
ATR %
5.8%
High
Beta
1.45
Above Mkt
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
1.43x
Above Avg
20-Day Avg Vol
828K
shares / day
Current Volume
1.2M
shares traded
Price Levels
52W High
$13.43
Resistance
$11.23
Target
$6.68
Current
$6.26
Stop Loss
$5.69
52W Low
$4.31
Support
$4.31
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.