TXN: Rounding Bottom detected on 8 May 2026

TXN is forming a rounding bottom pattern after reaching a new all-time high, with strong Q1 2026 results and positive Q2 guidance driving price action higher, supported by growth in industrial and data center segments. Current price of $285.24 sits 2.53% below the 52-week high, with key support at $150.97 and initial resistance near $196.72. The pattern structure scores 12.0/15, breakout quality 12.0/13, and volume 10.0/12—moderate scores reflecting the mature stage of the move. RSI at 75.64 indicates overbought conditions, while positive MACD (2.1582) confirms upside momentum. Win probability registers 63.43%.

Texas Instruments reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.83 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with net income of $1.55 billion and diluted EPS of $1.68. Analog revenue grew 22% to $3.92 billion with 41.7% operating margin, while Embedded Processing revenue rose 12% to $723 million with improved profitability. The company agreed to acquire Silicon Labs for $7.5 billion in cash, targeting closing in the first half of 2027. Over the past month, multiple analysts have rated the company as Hold, with an average price target of $270.42. The current $285.24 price already exceeds consensus target, suggesting limited upside per Wall Street consensus.

A successful rounding bottom breakout would target $297.60 conservatively—a 4.3% move from current levels. Volume confirmation is critical: average volume sits at 8.42M shares daily (current 7.02M is 83% of average), so increased institutional participation above 8.5M+ would validate breakout intent. Invalidation occurs at key support of $150.97, representing a catastrophic 47% downside—a tail-risk scenario unlikely given current momentum. Breakout above $297.60 would require sustained above-average volume and close above the consolidation ceiling. The 63.43% win probability suggests slightly better odds than coin flip, but RSI overbought at 75.64 warrants caution on further extension.

CEO Haviv Ilan sold 20,000 shares for approximately $5.6 million on May 4, 2026, signaling potential lack of confidence from management. SVP Mark Gary sold 13,689 shares valued at $3.82 million and SVP Mark Roberts disposed of 28,080 shares totaling $7.87 million on May 1, 2026—coordinated insider liquidation within days of new highs raises concern. The high dividend payout ratio of 97.26% could limit financial flexibility for reinvestment or acquisitions if earnings growth slows. The pending $7.5 billion Silicon Labs acquisition is expected to cause a pause in share buybacks and add significant leverage. RSI at 75.64 indicates extreme overbought conditions; historical pullbacks are common when momentum indicators reach these extremes. Beta 0.74 offers some downside cushion versus market, but semiconductor sector volatility remains material.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.