TXN: Rounding Bottom detected on 18 May 2026

Texas Instruments reported Q1 2026 results with sales rising to $4.825 billion and net income to $1.545 billion. The stock forms a rounding bottom with structure score of 12.0, breakout score of 12.0, and volume score of 10.0, yielding an overall score of 71. At $302.73, TXN sits 2.44% below its 52-week high and 100.52% above its 52-week low—near all-time highs. The measured move target is $315.85, invalidation level at support of $150.97. RSI of 74.75 signals overbought conditions. A win probability of 63.43% reflects solid but not exceptional pattern reliability.

Stifel raised its price target on Texas Instruments to $340 from $290 on May 15, 2026, maintaining a Buy rating. Texas Instruments reported strong Q1 2026 results, exceeding estimates and raising Q2 guidance, driving a 7.5% increase in stock price. The company benefits from robust demand in data center and industrial markets. In February 2026, TXN announced an agreement to acquire Silicon Labs for $231.00 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $7.5 billion. The semiconductor sector remains in bullish regime (0.69 score). However, TXN has seen a 66.3% year-to-date gain but valuation metrics suggest overvaluation with differing growth narratives impacting fair value estimates.

The rounding bottom pattern on strong momentum (36.38% gain over one month) suggests a potential continuation breakout above $315.85 resistance. Volume at 6.66M shares remains below the 20-day average of 9.02M, a modest concern—pattern strength typically requires volume confirmation on breakout. Key resistance target is $315.85 (conservative measure); successful breach would confirm the uptrend continuation. Invalidation occurs on drop below $150.97 support, though current position makes this unlikely near-term. Win probability of 63.43% indicates reasonable historical edge, suggesting the pattern has merit but carries execution risk.

Elevated RSI of 74.75 signals overbought conditions—potential pullback risk is material. Volume is 26% below 20-day average (0.74 ratio), weakening breakout confirmation potential. Valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation with competing fair value narratives—analyst targets span from cautious to bullish views. Beta of 0.75 provides some defensive cushion, but semiconductor sector remains volatile. Insider activity occurred on May 15, 2026, requiring monitoring for intent. The Silicon Labs acquisition ($7.5 billion) adds execution risk and debt considerations. Volatility at 74.21% is elevated—sudden sector rotation or macro events could reverse recent gains quickly.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.