VNO: Rounding Bottom detected on 8 Jul 2026

VNO is forming a rounding bottom pattern with strong structure (15/15) and solid breakout potential (13/13). The stock is testing resistance at 38.65 after rallying 54.48% over three months, currently trading at 39.44—just 0.79 above resistance. Volume is elevated at 1.25x average with positive breakout scoring. Support anchors at 24.57 (60% below current price). A cup-handle pattern also formed over 203 days (September 2025), adding confluence. RSI at 63.39 shows room before overbought, while beta of 1.22 indicates elevated volatility typical for REIT dynamics.

VNO posted weaker Q1 2026 results, swinging to a net loss of $22.8 million, or $(0.12) per share, versus net income of $0.43 a year earlier. FFO as adjusted declined to $0.52 per share from $0.63, primarily reflecting higher net interest expense. However, management remained active: VNO repurchased 2.75 million shares for $79.8 million and authorized a new $300 million buyback program. The company agreed to acquire 49% of Park Avenue Plaza at a $1.1 billion valuation and closed the $141 million purchase of 3 East 54th Street—signaling confidence in NYC office despite headwinds. VNO completed 125,000 SF of leases with tech companies Veeva and Altana at its reimagined PENN District office tower. The pattern is forming as management executes capital-intensive repositioning toward trophy assets.

A successful rounding bottom breakout would push VNO decisively above 38.65 resistance with volume exceeding the 2.34M current level. The measured move target is 41.15 (66% win probability), representing a 4.3% upside from resistance. The pattern invalidates cleanly at support of 24.57, giving a risk/reward profile favoring higher prices. Historical rounding bottoms in REIT sectors show 60–70% success rates when volume confirms the breakout. Momentum indicators (RSI 63.39, positive MACD histogram) support upside extension, though the recent 54% three-month gain suggests some consolidation before final leg higher.

Barclays maintained a Sell rating on VNO in May 2026. NOI at share fell from $293.3M to $272.1M quarter-over-quarter, with cash NOI declining from $269.4M to $241.1M. Total debt stands at $9.53 billion with a weighted average interest rate of 5.02%, creating pressure from rising floating-rate exposure. Cash-basis same store NOI at share declined 2.9%, with a 51.2% drop at 555 California Street—signaling West Coast office weakness. NYC office concentration (3.3 of 4.2 segments) faces structural headwinds from remote work and rising lease rates. Beta of 1.22 amplifies sector volatility. Pattern is only 9% below 52-week high; any macro downturn or rate shock could trigger sharp reversals to support.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.