COHU: Cup Handle detected on 19 Aug 2026

COHU is forming a cup-handle pattern with the handle completing near $59.22, just 12% below the 52-week high. The structure scores 14/15, indicating a well-defined cup with symmetric sides and a shallow handle. Volume ratio of 1.32x average supports the setup, while breakout score of 13/13 signals imminent directional movement. Key resistance sits at $52.84, already cleared; support anchors at $48.76. The overall 83/98 score and 54.49% win probability reflect a high-quality technical setup in a bullish market regime (0.9 score).

Cohu Inc, a leader in test and inspection handlers for semiconductor manufacturing, operates in a cyclically strong period as chip production ramps post-shortage. The Industrials sector and broader market show bullish regime signals (0.85 sector score). COHU has gained 33.98% over three months and 14.88% in the past month, reflecting institutional confidence in semiconductor equipment demand. The stock trades 20.62% below its 52-week high despite momentum, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than euphoric retail buying. No major negative catalysts or earnings date conflicts reported in recent filings appear imminent, allowing the pattern setup to develop without near-term earnings volatility.

A successful breakout above $52.84 resistance would target $68.10 on the conservative measure, representing 15% upside from current levels. Volume confirmation is critical—the pattern suggests sustained volume >1.2M shares (versus the current 1.47M daily average) during breakout to confirm institutional participation. The handle structure suggests a breakout timeline of 2–4 weeks. Invalidation occurs decisively below $48.76 support; a close below this level would signal pattern failure and potential reversal toward $42–45 support. Historical cup-handle breakouts with 54% win probability suggest risk/reward is balanced but favors upside.

Cohu's beta of 2.43 indicates high volatility relative to the market—a sector downturn or semiconductor demand surprise would amplify downside. RSI at 57 is neutral (not overbought), but the 3-month 34% rally has compressed valuation multiples; any earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger profit-taking. Semiconductor equipment stocks are sensitive to Taiwan geopolitical risks and U.S.–China trade policy changes. The 20-day volatility of 0.993 is elevated; macro Fed decisions or broader tech sector rotation could disrupt the pattern. No imminent earnings announced, but institutional heaviness in chip-equipment stocks creates mean-reversion risk if cyclical sentiment shifts.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.