ESTC: Three White Soldiers detected on 14 Aug 2026

A three white soldiers pattern has formed in ESTC at $86.03, just 0.8% below key resistance at $86.7. The pattern shows excellent structure with a score of 15.0/15, but breakout quality is moderate at 10.4/13 and volume confirmation is adequate at 10.8/12. The overall setup scores 78.2/98 with a 54.85% win probability. RSI at 84.99 signals overbought conditions—a warning flag despite strong recent momentum. Volume is elevated at 2.45x the 20-day average (4.6M shares vs. 1.88M), though volatility at 57.17% is notable. The pattern suggests consolidation after a 38% monthly rally is reaching potential inflection.

Elastic delivered strong Q4 FY2026 results with revenue of $450.68M (up 16% YoY) beating consensus by $4.5M, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.61 beating $0.56 consensus. Elastic Cloud revenue grew 20% to $217.36M, while current remaining performance obligations climbed 20% to $1.20B, with total RPO surging 28% to $1.98B. Management guided Q1 FY27 revenue of $469-470M and full-year FY27 revenue of $1.985-2.000B (14.6% growth). The company demonstrates strong AI capabilities and strategic acquisitions amid competitive pressures. The stock has rallied 77% in three months on growth acceleration and Cloud expansion momentum, creating this breakout setup.

A successful three white soldiers breakout targets $91.5 conservatively, implying 6.4% upside from current levels with resistance at $86.7 needing to clear first. Volume confirmation is solid at 2.45x average; breakout requires sustained volume above this level. Historical data on this pattern type shows the 54.85% win probability—slightly above-coin-flip odds. Key invalidation level sits at $56.06 support; loss of this level represents a $30 downside risk (35% drawdown). The pattern suggests if buyers maintain conviction through resistance, measured move targets the low-$91 zone.

Elastic is scheduled to report earnings on August 27, 2026, just 13 days from pattern detection—near-term catalyst risk is extreme. RSI at 84.99 is deeply overbought, creating mean-reversion risk. Analysts have flagged competitive pressure from bundled offerings, a structural headwind. Recent insider repurchases at $84.45/share suggest management confidence, but the stock is trading 1.7% above that level with 77% three-month gains compressed into explosive moves—extended valuation risk is high. Beta of 0.73 suggests lower volatility than peers, but 57% 20-day volatility is elevated. Earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger violent reversion toward $56 support.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.