GOOS: Flat Base detected on 22 Apr 2026
All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on .
Browse all Flat Base detections →On 22 Apr 2026, our scan flagged GOOS as a flat base setup scoring 80 out of 98 (Strong tier), with a 69% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 1.18 to 1 risk to reward profile from the published levels. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a multi-day swing hold, not an intraday move. At $12.11, the conservative target is $12.63 with a stop at $11.67. A further breakout above resistance near $12.68 offers a larger move if momentum continues past the initial target.
Overall Score
80
of 98
Strong
Win Probability
69%
Moderate
Trade R:R
1.18
: 1
$0.52 to target
$0.44 to stop
Swing Trading Plan
Entry
$12.11
Target
$12.63
Stop Loss
$11.67
Holding Period
2-7 trading days
Expected Return
+$0.12
Exp. Reward
+$0.27
Exp. Risk
-$0.15
Expected figures are probability-weighted from our historical pattern database; Trade R:R is measured from the entry, target and stop levels.
Current Setup
GOOS is forming a flat base pattern with 4 consecutive quarters of positive DTC comparable sales growth. The stock sits at $12.11, pinned between key support at $10.27 and resistance at $12.68 — a tight 4% trading band. Structure scores 15/15 and breakout scores 10/13, indicating solid architectural integrity but modest conviction. Volume ratio at 1.04x average is neutral. The overall 80-point setup and 68.69% win probability suggest the pattern is technically clean but not explosive. The stock trades 54% above its 52-week low and 21% below its 52-week high, positioning it mid-range.
Stock Context
Third quarter revenue grew 14% year-over-year led by strong performance in US and Mainland China, underpinning recent momentum. Patrick Bourke was appointed President, North America effective February 5, 2026, overseeing brand momentum and retail/wholesale execution. However, Barclays downgraded the stock on February 6, 2026, lowering its price target to $10.00, creating headwind. GOOS has 6 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and 4 Sell ratings, reflecting mixed sentiment. The stock gained 5.58% in one week and 15.11% in two weeks, but remains down 0.49% over three months, suggesting short-term relief rally off support levels.
What to Expect
A successful breakout above $12.68 resistance would target $12.63 conservatively—essentially price at resistance with minimal upside room, signaling the pattern offers limited measured-move potential. Volume should exceed the 415k shares traded today to validate the breakout. RSI at 65.41 is approaching overbought territory (70), which historically precedes pullbacks before continuation. Invalidation occurs at key support of $10.27, representing a 15% downside risk. The 68.69% win probability is above 50% but not exceptional, suggesting breakouts execute roughly two-thirds of the time. The tight target implies limited risk-reward asymmetry.
Risk Factors
Recent analyst downgrade from Barclays on February 6, 2026, and average price targets near $11.67 across major firms imply downside risk of 2-16%. The beta of 1.3 indicates elevated volatility relative to the broad market, amplifying moves. RSI at 65.41 is approaching overbought, historically a reversal signal. Milder winters, sustainability concerns, and overreliance on winter outerwear alongside rising counterfeits risk margin compression and weakened brand equity. Leadership transition in North America, though internally promoted, introduces execution risk. Analyst consensus is mixed with significant sell-side skepticism, and the conservative target of $12.63 offers minimal profit margin above current price, limiting upside cushion before disappointment.
Sources:
Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
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Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose Announces Executive Management Changes
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Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
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Canada Goose to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on November 6, 2025
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Canada Goose sets Q3 FY26 results for Feb. 5 | GOOS Stock News
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Canada Goose to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on February 5, 2026
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Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose to Announce First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on July 31, 2025
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Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose Appoints Patrick Bourke as President, North America
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Canada Goose Inc. - Canada Goose to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on February 5, 2026
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Canada Goose to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on February 5, 2026
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Canada Goose Holdings Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:GOOS | Benzinga
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Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance
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Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions - TipRanks.com
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GOOS Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings | CANADA GOOSE HOLDINGS INC (NYSE:GOOS) | ChartMill.com
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GOOS Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
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Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS.TO) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance
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GOOS Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN
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Canada Goose Holdings (TSX:GOOS) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
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Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Analyst Ratings - Stock Analysis
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Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Earnings Dates & Report | Seeking Alpha
How We Find and Score This Setup
We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GOOS a good swing trade?
GOOS scored 80 out of 98 on our flat base scan, with a 69% historical win probability over a 2-7 trading days hold. Strong setup based on our systematic scoring.
What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?
The setup's reference price is $12.11, with a conservative target of $12.63 and a stop loss at $11.67.
What would invalidate this flat base setup?
A close below the stop loss at $11.67 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.
How is the win probability calculated?
Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical flat base setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bullish
0.94
-1.0
0
+1.0
Consumer Discretionary Sector
Bullish
0.65
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Inverse Head And Shoulders
33 days in pattern
Good
32.0
Overall Score
37
of 40
Pattern Quality
16
of 20
Setup
13
of 20
R/R
14
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
15
of 15
Structure
10
of 13
Breakout
12
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.16
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
97.1%
Upper Band
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.37
High
ATR %
3.1%
Medium
Beta
1.30
Above Mkt
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
1.04x
Average
20-Day Avg Vol
398K
shares / day
Current Volume
416K
shares traded
Price Levels
52W High
$15.42
Resistance
$12.68
Target
$12.63
Current
$12.11
Stop Loss
$11.67
Support
$10.27
52W Low
$7.85
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.