MHK: Flat Base detected on 3 Aug 2026

Mohawk Industries is forming a flat base after beating Q2 2026 earnings expectations on July 30 with adjusted EPS of $3.67. The stock rests at $123.10, sitting 13.99% below its 52-week high but consolidating above key support at $101.27 and near resistance at $125.54. Pattern quality scores are solid: structure (12.0/15), volume (12.0/12), and breakout (10.0/13) together yield an overall 76.0 score. The setup suggests institutional accumulation is underway—current volume at 2.02M shares is 2.4x the 20-day average of 841K shares, signaling strong buyer commitment. Win probability sits at 63.13%, indicating moderate-to-good odds of pattern completion.

On July 30, Mohawk Industries reported Q2 2026 results beating Wall Street expectations with sales up 6.8% year-on-year to $2.99 billion and non-GAAP profit of $3.67 per share, 42% above consensus. Net sales for Q2 2026 were $3.0 billion, up 6.8% as reported and up 5.0% adjusted for constant days and exchange rates versus the prior year. Q3 adjusted EPS is guided at $2.50–$2.60 as input costs persist, though tariff refunds added $0.63 to Q2 EPS. The company expects higher input costs in Q3 with further benefits from price increases, and anticipates higher costs to persist into Q4 with possible additional pricing actions. The recent earnings beat combined with forward guidance creates tailwinds for the pattern—the stock has already rallied 16.62% over three months, and this consolidation near highs suggests accumulation ahead of next move.

A successful breakout above $125.54 resistance would target $128.43 conservatively, representing a 4.2% measured move from current price. The pattern indicates moderate upside potential with the 63.13% win probability suggesting better-than-coin-flip odds of breakout success. Volume confirmation is critical: sustaining closes above resistance on elevated volume (>1.5M shares) would validate the setup. Invalidation occurs on a close below key support at $101.27, approximately 17.8% below current price. The pattern suggests accumulation completion after strong Q2 earnings, with Q3 guidance providing near-term catalyst for next leg higher.

MHK carries elevated volatility and beta risk: beta of 2.15 indicates stock moves 2.15x broader market swings, while 20-day volatility at 43.86% and ATR of 4.39 (3.57% of price) suggest sharp intraday swings. Management warned of persistent input costs in Q3 and Q4 with potential need for additional pricing actions, creating margin pressure risk if pricing power proves insufficient. Consumer discretionary sector faces headwinds—sector regime is neutral (0.08 score), contrasting broad market's bullish setup (0.62 regime score), suggesting relative weakness in home furnishings. RSI at 63.92 approaches overbought territory (>70), indicating potential short-term profit-taking. Recent 8.68% one-week and 10.4% two-week gains leave stock vulnerable to mean reversion before consolidation breaks decisively.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.