MMYT: Bullish Pennant detected on 11 May 2026

MMYT is forming a bullish pennant after FY2026 Q4 earnings are scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a structure score of 14.0 and breakout score of 13.0 (both solid). The stock is trading at $47.84, trapped between key support at $36.50 and near-term resistance at $51.38—only 3.5 points away. Volume is a constraint: current volume at 615,516 shares is just 53% of the 20-day average, suggesting the pattern lacks conviction. The 83.0 overall score and 61.58% win probability indicate above-average setups, but the measured move target of $51.41 offers minimal headroom before invalidation.

MakeMyTrip will report fiscal 2026 Q4 results before market open on May 19, 2026, making this pattern form into an earnings event—a critical catalyst. Analysts expect EPS of $0.31 and revenue of $278.7 million for the quarter. Sentiment is decidedly mixed: Citi lowered its price target to $80 from $96 but kept a Buy rating, noting a tough FY2026 backdrop but that shares are "quite cheap" following recent declines. More concerning, Bank of America cut its target to $60 from $105 and noted soft Q4 results due to Middle East war impacts on travel, with potential 6-7% YoY growth headwinds. The company is also weighing a listing of its Indian arm via Indian Depository Receipts, which could unlock value but adds execution risk.

A successful breakout of this bullish pennant would see MMYT clear $51.38 resistance with volume confirmation above 1.16M shares (normal 20-day average). The conservative target of $51.41 is just three cents above resistance—an extremely tight measured move. The RSI at 53.04 shows neutral momentum with room to run into overbought territory. Invalidation occurs decisively below the $36.50 key support level, which would represent a catastrophic break of the post-collapse recovery structure. With a 61.58% win probability, this setup is slightly better than a coin flip, but the minimal profit target relative to risk and low volume suggest limited urgency until volume confirmation appears.

A short position announced by Morpheus Research led to a 2.4% stock drop, signaling growing market concerns about future performance. Valuation is stretched: MMYT trades at a Forward P/E of 27.24 versus an industry average of 9.97, leaving little room for disappointment. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate fell 5.5% and the stock holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell). The critical risk is earnings on May 19—only eight days away. Any miss on Q4 (given Middle East headwinds already flagged) could gap the stock down through support. Volume weakness (53% of average) suggests retail participation is thin, which often precedes reversals. Beta of 0.77 offers defensive characteristics, but the volatility at 3.97% ATR is moderate—large moves are still possible.