MTSI: Symmetrical Triangle detected on 10 Sep 2026

A symmetrical triangle is forming around $271.34 resistance with current price at $286.12, marking a breakout above the recent compression range. Structure and volume scores of 10.0 and 10.0 reflect clean, equal slope legs and solid volume participation at 1.58x average—the 11.0 breakout score indicates conviction behind the move. RSI at 53.65 sits in neutral territory, and MACD histogram positive at 1.5452 confirms momentum building. A post-collapse recovery pattern also detected over 29 days with good strength rating. The 69.0 overall score and 57.19% win probability suggest above-average technical setup quality.

MACOM reported Q3 2026 revenue of $342.24M, beating consensus by $6.69M, with net income more than tripling to $100.7M versus $36.5M year-ago—profit growth outpaced revenue growth of 35.8%. This earnings explosion occurred on August 6, 2026. Gross margin expanded to 58.3% from 55.3% a year prior, flowing through to operating income of 22.5% of revenue versus 14.9% last year, reflecting structural margin expansion. Q4 guidance calls for $415-425M revenue with continued double-digit growth and margin expansion. Analyst actions include Benchmark reinstating a Buy rating on August 17 and BMO Capital initiating Market Perform on August 20. Susquehanna lowered price target to $300 with Neutral rating, while Stifel raised target to $450 maintaining Buy. The data center-driven strength and record profitability are driving current recovery momentum.

A successful breakout above $271.34 resistance would target the conservative measure of $300.54, implying ~4.9% upside from current levels, with intermediate support at $252.94 marking invalidation. Volume confirmation should sustain above the 1.58x relative volume ratio recently achieved to validate extension. The 57.19% win probability indicates roughly even odds, suggesting the pattern has technical merit but carries meaningful execution risk. With MTSI trading at a forward P/E of 30.40, the market has already priced in substantial growth, leaving less room for margin of safety on breakout failure.

Key risk is disappointment risk if next quarter numbers come in soft, as guidance calls for a bigger sequential jump built on tax rate and share count assumptions not yet proven. At forward P/E of 30.40, valuation is stretched relative to semiconductor averages, reducing downside margin of safety. Beta of 1.94 means MTSI exhibits 94% more volatility than the broad market—ATR at 3.98% indicates $11.38 daily swings can trigger stop losses rapidly. Recent insider selling activity is occurring, though SEC filings suggest routine portfolio management rather than directional concern. Tech sector remains strong at 0.95 regime score, but any broadening AI euphoria fade could pressure high-multiple names like MTSI. The post-collapse recovery status (29 days formed) means limited price confirmation that lows hold.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.