NCNO: Bull Flag detected on 23 Jul 2026

nCino is forming a bull flag pattern after a significant run, with the stock currently trading at $16.60 against key resistance at $18.87 and support at $16.26. The pattern structure scores 15/15, indicating textbook flag geometry with a consolidation period supporting the flag formation. Breakout score of 10.4/13 and volume score of 12/12 suggest solid technical quality, though volume is tracking below 20-day average (0.74x ratio). The overall score of 83.4/98 and 75.13% win probability indicate a high-quality setup. At 20.29% above the 52-week low and 51.06% below the 52-week high, the stock is positioned in the middle of its annual range.

nCino reported fiscal 2026 as a landmark year with record gross ACV bookings, exceeding financial guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, driven by strong global sales execution and accelerating demand for AI-powered banking capabilities. The company recorded Annual Contract Value of $602.4 million, up 17% year-over-year, and achieved an ACV net retention rate of 112%. The company reported its best sales quarter in over four years in the US enterprise market, including significant expansions with top banks. Recent announcements include DNB going live on the nCino platform on 07/07/2026 and customer wins from Vision Credit Union and Austrian banking consortiums. However, international total revenues decreased 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter with a 6% decline in constant currency, signaling modest headwinds in expansion markets despite strong domestic momentum.

A successful breakout above $18.87 would target $17.15 (conservative measured move), with historical data showing 75.13% win probability for this bull flag pattern type. Volume confirmation is essential—the pattern typically requires volume above the 20-day average (currently 3.5M shares) at the breakout point to validate the move. Invalidation occurs on a close below key support at $16.26; breach of this level would signal pattern failure and likely mean-reversion pressure. The setup suggests a contained 3.2% upside move to target (from $16.60 to $17.15) with asymmetric risk-reward favoring the long side if technical conditions hold.

RSI of 47.76 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but recent price action shows weakness: down 6.69% in the past week and down 8.94% over three months despite positive fundamentals. Over the last 3 years, earnings per share has increased 63% annually while share price has fallen 12% per year, creating a significant valuation disconnect. The technology sector regime is bearish (score: -0.21), with market regime neutral at -0.19, creating headwinds for growth software. Beta of 0.19 is defensively low, suggesting the stock doesn't amplify market moves, but subdued volatility (ATR 5.12%) may limit breakout momentum. International revenue challenges persist with professional services revenues remaining flat, potentially capping near-term growth acceleration. Next earnings date: Q2 fiscal 2027 results, which could provide critical guidance clarity.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.