NU: Rounding Bottom detected on 9 Oct 2026
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Browse all Rounding Bottom detections →On 9 Oct 2026, our scan flagged NU as a rounding bottom setup scoring 76 out of 98 (Good tier), with a 69% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 0.61 to 1 risk to reward profile from the published levels. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a multi-day swing hold, not an intraday move. At $15.38, the conservative target is $16.23 with a stop at $13.98. A further breakout above resistance near $18.00 offers a larger move if momentum continues past the initial target.
Overall Score
76
of 98
Good
Win Probability
69%
Moderate
Trade R:R
0.61
: 1
$0.85 to target
$1.40 to stop
Swing Trading Plan
Entry
$15.38
Target
$16.23
Stop Loss
$13.98
Holding Period
2-7 trading days
Expected Return
+$0.30
Exp. Reward
+$0.48
Exp. Risk
-$0.18
Expected figures are probability-weighted from our historical pattern database; Trade R:R is measured from the entry, target and stop levels.
Current Setup
NU is forming a rounding bottom recovery pattern after an 88-day post-collapse consolidation, currently trading at $15.38. The structure score of 13.0 and breakout score of 13.0 indicate a well-defined technical setup, with resistance at $18.00 and critical support at $11.20. Volume is near 20-day average (0.97 ratio), suggesting measured accumulation. The overall score of 76 and 69% win probability indicate above-average pattern quality for this recovery phase.
Stock Context
Nu Holdings (NU), Latin America's largest digital bank by users, has faced headwinds through 2026. The fintech sector experienced consolidation pressure, and NU's stock declined significantly from highs before initiating this 88-day recovery. Recent performance shows 15.73% gains over one week and 11.77% over three months, suggesting institutional re-engagement. The stock trades 37% above its 52-week low but 19% below recent highs, positioning it in a recovery window. NU's high beta of 1.62 reflects fintech sector volatility, particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations in Brazil and broader emerging market sentiment.
What to Expect
A successful rounding bottom breakout would require closing above the $18.00 resistance level on elevated volume (above 84M shares). The measured move target of $16.23 represents a conservative milestone; sustained breakout could extend toward prior resistance levels. Invalidation occurs at $11.20, where the recovery thesis collapses and would signal retest of multi-month lows. The 69% win probability suggests historical precedent favors upside, but volume confirmation is critical—current volume ratio of 0.97 indicates breakout momentum would need acceleration to confirm pattern completion.
Risk Factors
NU operates in Brazil's volatile fintech market with regulatory scrutiny on consumer lending and digital banking. High beta of 1.62 magnifies broader market selloffs—any emerging market risk-off event could invalidate this pattern rapidly. RSI at 61 sits neutral but approaching overbought; any reversal from resistance could trigger quick reversion to $11.20 support. Financial sector regime is bearish with -0.09 score, creating headwinds. Upcoming U.S. Fed policy decisions and Brazilian central bank rate trajectory directly impact NU's valuation. Validate news flow for recent regulatory actions or quarterly results before breakout confirmation.
How We Find and Score This Setup
We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NU a good swing trade?
NU scored 76 out of 98 on our rounding bottom scan, with a 69% historical win probability over a 2-7 trading days hold. Good setup based on our systematic scoring.
What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?
The setup's reference price is $15.38, with a conservative target of $16.23 and a stop loss at $13.98.
What would invalidate this rounding bottom setup?
A close below the stop loss at $13.98 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.
How is the win probability calculated?
Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical rounding bottom setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Neutral
0.19
-1.0
0
+1.0
Finance Sector
Bearish
-0.09
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Post Collapse Recovery
88 days in pattern
Moderate
29.4
Overall Score
36
of 40
Pattern Quality
20
of 20
Setup
13
of 20
R/R
7
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
13
of 15
Structure
13
of 13
Breakout
10
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
61.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.24
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
86.1%
Upper Zone
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.69
Very High
ATR %
4.2%
Medium
Beta
1.62
High Beta
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
0.97x
Average
20-Day Avg Vol
84.9M
shares / day
Current Volume
82.4M
shares traded
Price Levels
52W High
$18.98
Resistance
$18.00
Target
$16.23
Current
$15.38
Stop Loss
$13.98
52W Low
$11.20
Support
$11.20
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.