OEC: Rounding Bottom detected on 7 Apr 2026
All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on .
Browse all Rounding Bottom detections →On 7 Apr 2026, our scan flagged OEC as a rounding bottom setup scoring 75 out of 98 (Good tier), with a 63% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 0.3 to 1 reward to risk ratio. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a 10 trading day hold, not an intraday move. At $6.33, the conservative target is $6.75 with a stop at $5.75. A further breakout above resistance near $10.59 offers a larger move if momentum continues past the initial target.
Overall Score
75
of 98
Good
Win Probability
63%
Moderate
Reward / Risk
0.3
: 1
$0.05 reward
$-0.17 risk
Swing Trading Plan
Entry
$6.33
Target
$6.75
Stop Loss
$5.75
Holding Period
Up to 10 trading days
Win Probability
63%
Current Setup
Orion S.A., a leading global supplier of carbon black products, is forming a rounding bottom pattern at $6.33, positioned 46.87% above its 52-week low ($4.31 support). The structure score of 13.75 reflects a clearly defined bowl-shaped consolidation with defined entry levels. Volume ratio of 0.58x average is suboptimal—a successful breakout requires volume confirmation above the 816,582-share 20-day average. Breakout score of 10.4 indicates moderate strength. The pattern projects a conservative target of $6.75, with overall score of 75.15 and 63.07% historical win probability.
Stock Context
Full year 2025 net sales were $1.8 billion, a 4% decrease from prior year, with a 7% price decline offset by 2% volume growth. Q4 2025 earnings per share missed consensus, reporting ($0.34) versus estimate of ($0.08). Recent analyst sentiment is cautious: Zacks upgraded from "strong sell" to "hold" rating, while JPMorgan lowered price target from $9.00 to $5.00 with "underweight" rating. The board declared an interim dividend of $0.0207 per share for Q2 2026, signaling capital return despite depressed earnings. Orion appears at a cyclical low with three consecutive years of declining EBITDA projected through 2026, suggesting the rounding bottom reflects sector cyclicality rather than company-specific turnaround.
What to Expect
A successful breakout above $10.59 resistance on expanding volume would target the conservative measure of $6.75 on near-term basis, with upside potential toward $9.00–$10.00 if broader chemical sector momentum improves. Invalidation occurs below $4.31 support, where the pattern structure breaks down and bulls surrender control. Historical data shows 63% probability of measured-move success within typical timeframes. Volume confirmation is critical—current 0.58x ratio suggests breakout liquidity remains constrained; sustained daily volume above 816k shares validates conviction.
Risk Factors
Two analysts rate Hold while three rate Sell, with consensus "Strong Sell" and $5.67 target—significantly below current price, indicating downsides if momentum falters. Short interest stands at 1.2M shares (2.2% float) but has risen 40% recently and 72% over 12 months, reflecting growing bearish positioning. Cyclical EBITDA decline through 2026 pressures earnings recovery timing. Beta of 1.46 signals 46% higher volatility than broad market, amplifying downside risk. RSI at 60.56 shows mild momentum but is not overbought. Persistently soft demand in key industrial end-markets and tire-sector headwinds remain structural headwinds. No major earnings catalyst or strategic catalyst identified in near term; AGM June 25 is too distant to drive immediate price action.
Sources:
Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend
·
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend | OEC Stock News
·
Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend | Morningstar
·
Orion S.A. Declares Interim Quarterly Dividend
·
Orion S.A. Common Shares (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quotes, & Historic Data | Nasdaq
·
OEC Stock Price, News & Analysis | Orion Engineered Carbons S.A.
·
FinancialContent - Orion S.A. Common Shares (NYSE:OEC) Stock Quote
·
Heartland Advisors Inc. Sells 400,000 Shares of Orion S.A. $OEC - Daily Political
·
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis | Seeking Alpha
·
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
Orion (OEC) Stock Price & Overview
·
ORN - Orion Group Holdings Inc Stock Price and Quote
·
OEC Stock Price, News & Analysis | Orion Engineered Carbons S.A.
·
Orion Group (ORN) Stock Price, News & Analysis - NYSE
·
ORN Stock Price and Chart — NYSE:ORN — TradingView
·
Orion S.A. (OEC) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis | Seeking Alpha
·
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Latest Stock News & Headlines - Yahoo Finance
·
Orion Corporation ADR (ORINY) Stock Price, News, Quotes, & Historic Data | Nasdaq
How We Find and Score This Setup
We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OEC a good swing trade?
OEC scored 75 out of 98 on our rounding bottom scan, with a 63% historical win probability over the standard 10 trading day hold. Good setup based on our systematic scoring.
What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?
The setup's reference price is $6.33, with a conservative target of $6.75 and a stop loss at $5.75.
What would invalidate this rounding bottom setup?
A close below the stop loss at $5.75 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.
How is the win probability calculated?
Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical rounding bottom setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bullish
0.21
-1.0
0
+1.0
Industrials Sector
Bearish
0.17
-1.0
0
+1.0
Overall Score
36
of 40
Pattern Quality
20
of 20
Setup
11
of 20
R/R
8
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
14
of 15
Structure
10
of 13
Breakout
12
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
60.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
+0.15
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
80.1%
Upper Zone
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
0.64
Very High
ATR %
5.9%
High
Beta
1.46
Above Mkt
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
0.58x
Below Avg
20-Day Avg Vol
817K
shares / day
Current Volume
471K
shares traded
Price Levels
52W High
$12.69
Resistance
$10.59
Target
$6.75
Current
$6.33
Stop Loss
$5.75
Support
$4.31
52W Low
$4.31
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.