RSI: Ascending Triangle detected on 24 Mar 2026

RSI is forming an ascending triangle with resistance near $21.55, after Q4 2025 revenue reached a record $324.9 million, up 28% year-over-year. The pattern shows structure score of 13.75/15, volume ratio of 1.39x average, and breakout score of 11.7/13, indicating a moderately well-formed setup at $21.75. Recent 7-day gain of 7.73% and 1-month gain of 17.44% show momentum building into resistance. Key support sits at $21.29, just 26 cents below current price—a tight invalidation level suggesting conviction. Overall pattern quality score of 73.25/98 reflects a solid technical foundation with multiple bullish pattern confirmations (bull flag, flat base, higher lows with volume spike detected in February-March 2026).

RSI guided for 2026 revenue of $1.4 billion at midpoint and full-year EBITDA of $220 million, both ahead of consensus. CEO Richard Todd Schwartz sold roughly 500,000 shares in February 2026, including 247,114 shares on February 17, though this appears routine. Q4 results drew a positive market reaction driven by robust user growth and online casino strength, with management citing improved customer acquisition and retention initiatives. Tudor Investment boosted its stake by 72.7% during the third quarter in mid-March, showing institutional support. Regulatory and tax risks remain in key markets like Colombia, Mexico, Illinois and New Jersey, which is why the pattern forms now—strong earnings confirmation fighting against sector and market bearish regimes.

The measured move target is $23.09 based on the pattern height, representing approximately 6.2% upside from current price. Successful breakout would require close above $21.55 with volume ratio sustaining above 1.3x to confirm institutional participation. Win probability score of 62.72% suggests the pattern succeeds roughly 2 out of 3 attempts. Invalidation occurs at support $21.29; a daily close below this level dissolves the setup. Volume of 2.4M shares is 39% above 20-day average, providing enough liquidity for a clean breakout if resistance surrenders. Historical data shows ascending triangles have 55-65% win rates in equities—RSI's 62.72% sits comfortably in that range.

Primary risk remains regulatory and tax changes in core markets Colombia, Mexico, Illinois and New Jersey. RSI's beta of 1.06 and volatility of 31.97% (20-day) expose it to broad market pullback risk, especially given the overall market regime is bearish (-0.41 score) and Consumer Discretionary sector is bearish (-0.48 regime score). On current numbers, RSI trades at P/E of 62.3x, considerably elevated versus 21.3x for US Hospitality and 26.5x for peers, creating valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. RSI is not overbought technically (RSI 66.95 is below 70), but the elevated short-term price action and narrow support level (26 cents) leave little room for error if bearish catalysts emerge. No upcoming earnings date identified in near term, reducing near-term event risk.