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NBR: Ascending Triangle detected on 24 Mar 2026

All prices, scores, and news on this page reflect data available before market open on 24 Mar 2026.

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On 24 Mar 2026, our scan flagged NBR as a ascending triangle setup scoring 78 out of 98 (Good tier), with a 63% win probability based on our historical pattern database and a 1.9 to 1 reward to risk ratio. This is a swing trade setup: win probability reflects a 10 trading day hold, not an intraday move. At $84.99, the conservative target is $90.22 with a stop at $79.55.

Overall Score

78 of 98

Good

Win Probability

63%

Moderate

Reward / Risk

1.9 : 1

$1.81 reward $-0.93 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Swing Trading Plan

Entry

$84.99

Target

$90.22

Stop Loss

$79.55

Holding Period

Up to 10 trading days

Win Probability

63%

Current Setup

NBR hit a new 52-week high on March 23, trading as high as $83.16, now forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $83.58 and support at $80.12. At $84.99, the stock sits just 1.5% below its 52-week peak after an 11.78% gain in one week. Pattern quality scores solid: structure (15.0/15), volume (10.8/12), and breakout (11.7/13) combine for an overall score of 77.5/98 with 62.91% win probability. Volume at 532,967 shares (1.36x average) shows above-normal participation. The ascending triangle structure has two prior patterns detected—a bull flag (December 2025) and three white soldiers (March 19)—suggesting sustained upside momentum.

Stock Context

NBR reported Q4 2025 results moving from prior losses to profits, alongside completion of the Parker Wellbore acquisition and continued debt reduction. The company reported Q4 EPS of $0.17, beating consensus by $3.10, with revenue of $805.13 million exceeding expectations by $9.31 million. Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $80 from $65 with an Overweight rating, while Citigroup reaffirmed a neutral rating and set a $85 price objective (up from $60). Nabors reduced net debt by $554 million and lowered annualized cash interest expense by $45 million, with expected adjusted EBITDA contribution of at least $70 million in 2026 from Parker. The Energy sector trades in bullish regime (score 0.81) while broader market is bearish, creating a positive divergence for NBR.

What to Expect

A confirmed breakout above $83.58 resistance would target $90.22 (conservative measure move), implying 6.1% upside from current levels. The pattern requires sustained volume above 391,220-share average to confirm strength. Historical data shows ascending triangles succeed 62.91% of the time in similar setups. Invalidation occurs at $80.12 support—a close below this level signals the pattern has failed and bullish structure is compromised. RSI at 68.3 indicates approaching overbought conditions but not yet extended, leaving room for additional upside before momentum exhaustion.

Risk Factors

RSI of 68.3 approaches overbought territory (>70), signaling potential short-term pullback risk before further gains. Piper Sandler flagged pressure around reporting days due to Q1 2026 estimates below consensus and margin impact from international reactivations. Beta of 2.26 means NBR is highly volatile relative to the market—the current bearish regime (-0.41) could trigger sharp reversals. Analysts forecast EPS of -$4.65 for 2026 after Q4 profitability, indicating earnings headwinds ahead despite near-term momentum. Key risks include U.S. Lower 48 margin pressure, international uncertainty, heavy capital needs, and high debt levels limiting financial flexibility. The stock's 265% move above 52-week lows raises valuation concerns after such rapid appreciation.

How We Find and Score This Setup

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NBR a good swing trade?

NBR scored 78 out of 98 on our ascending triangle scan, with a 63% historical win probability over the standard 10 trading day hold. Good setup based on our systematic scoring.

What is the entry, target, and stop loss for this setup?

The setup's reference price is $84.99, with a conservative target of $90.22 and a stop loss at $79.55.

What would invalidate this ascending triangle setup?

A close below the stop loss at $79.55 would invalidate the setup and suggest the pattern has failed.

How is the win probability calculated?

Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical ascending triangle setups performed over the following 10 trading days, drawn from a database of 370,000+ historical pattern detections across 6,000+ NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Bearish -0.42

-1.0 0 +1.0

Energy Sector

Bullish 0.81

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

64 days in pattern

Moderate 29.4

Three White Soldiers

3 days in pattern

Moderate 27.5

Overall Score

38 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

16 of 20

Strong

Setup

13 of 20

Moderate

R/R

11 of 18

Moderate

Context

Pattern Quality Score

15 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

12 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

11 of 12

Exceptional

Volume

Recent Performance

+11.8%

+4.8%

+8.7%

+66.2%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

68.3

Neutral

MACD Histogram

-0.03

Bearish

Bollinger Band Position

123.5%

Upper Band

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.40

High

ATR %

4.9%

Medium

Beta

2.26

High Beta

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

1.36x

Above Avg

20-Day Avg Vol

391K

shares / day

Current Volume

533K

shares traded

Price Levels

Target

$90.22

52W High

$86.32

Current

$84.99

Resistance

$83.58

Support

$80.12

Stop Loss

$79.55

52W Low

$23.27

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.