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UTI NBR VG TEN ANNA TSSI RSI LUNR AZ IBRX

UTI: Ascending Triangle detected on 24 Mar 2026

Overall Score

78 of 100

Good

Win Probability

63%

Moderate

Reward / Risk

2.3 : 1

$0.86 reward $-0.37 risk

Summary Context Technical Indicators

Current Setup

UTI has formed an ascending triangle pattern following a strong 43% three-month gain, with Q1 2026 earnings announced Feb 4 showing revenue of $220.8 million (up 9.6%). The pattern shows excellent structure (15.0/15), good breakout potential (13.0/13), though volume is moderate at 9.0/12. Price at $38.04 sits 78.68% above 52-week lows with resistance at $37.92 and support at $37.17. Overall pattern quality scores 78/98 with 62.84% historical win probability—a constructive setup despite modest relative volume at 0.83x average.

Stock Context

Q1 FY2026 delivered $220.8M revenue (+9.6% YoY) with net income $12.8M; adjusted EBITDA was $27.1M (down 23.5% due to $7.6M strategic growth investments); average active students increased 7.2%. Management reiterated FY2026 guidance of $905-915M revenue and approved two new campuses: UTI-Atlanta (117,000 sq ft, targeting Summer 2026) and UTI-San Antonio, both pending regulatory approval. Analysts broadly reiterated positive views on the company's outlook, highlighting improving student enrollment and lower capital spending needs as new campuses come online. The pattern is forming during deliberate margin compression for growth—profitability declining while reinvesting in campus expansion.

What to Expect

Target price is 40.38 (conservative measured move), representing a 6.1% breakout move from current $38.04. Ascending triangle suggests buyers controlling support while resistance compresses—confirmation requires volume spike above $37.92 to sustain the breakout. Invalidation occurs below $37.17 support. At 62.84% win probability, historical data indicates roughly 2 in 3 patterns achieve their measured move before either invalidating or pulling back.

Risk Factors

A director at Universal Technical sold $182k in stock as recently as March 18, 2026—insider selling at elevated price levels is notable. Next earnings expected May 6, 2026, roughly 6 weeks away, creating event risk. RSI at 63.3 is neutral but approaching overbought territory. Adjusted EBITDA declined 23.5% YoY due to $7.6M in strategic growth investments, with net income down $9.3M—margin pressure may concern investors if new campus ROI disappoints. Volume ratio at 0.83x average suggests weak accumulation behind the move. Broader market and sector regimes are both bearish (scores -0.41 and -0.48), providing headwind.

Market & Sector Regime

Market

Bearish -0.42

-1.0 0 +1.0

Real Estate Sector

Bearish -0.48

-1.0 0 +1.0

Other Patterns Detected Today

Bull Flag

31 days in pattern

Moderate 28.4

Higher Lows Volume Spike

19 days in pattern

Good 30.8

Overall Score

37 of 40

Exceptional

Pattern Quality

20 of 20

Exceptional

Setup

13 of 20

Moderate

R/R

8 of 18

Weak

Context

Pattern Quality Score

15 of 15

Exceptional

Structure

13 of 13

Exceptional

Breakout

9 of 12

Good

Volume

Recent Performance

+5.4%

+8.2%

+24.4%

+43.2%

Momentum & Trend

RSI (14)

63.3

Neutral

MACD Histogram

-0.07

Bearish

Bollinger Band Position

97.4%

Upper Band

Volatility & Risk

20-Day Volatility

0.58

Very High

ATR %

4.5%

Medium

Beta

1.01

Market

Volume Analysis

Volume Ratio

0.83x

Average

20-Day Avg Vol

778K

shares / day

Current Volume

649K

shares traded

Price Levels

Target

$40.38

52W High

$38.17

Current

$38.04

Resistance

$37.92

Support

$37.17

Stop Loss

$35.87

52W Low

$21.29

Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.