VG: Rounding Bottom detected on 24 Mar 2026
Overall Score
76
of 100
Good
Win Probability
65%
Moderate
Reward / Risk
0.2
: 1
$0.11 reward
$-0.46 risk
Current Setup
Venture Global is forming a rounding-bottom pattern after a 65-day post-collapse recovery (March 24 formation date) with good pattern strength and 30.0 quality score. Current price at $15.80 sits just above key resistance of $15.08, with invalidation support at $5.71. Pattern structure scores 15/15 (perfect), volume 12/12 (strong), and breakout strength 13/13, yielding 76.0 overall quality. The rounding bottom structure suggests institutional accumulation through the lows. Win probability of 64.77% indicates this is a legitimate setup.
Stock Context
Venture Global signed a binding agreement with Vitol on March 23, 2026 for 1.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG for five years commencing 2026. The CP2 project achieved final investment decision in March 2026, signaling lender confidence. Full year 2025 revenue reached $13.8 billion with $6.3 billion adjusted EBITDA, representing massive operational momentum. Of 15 major analysts covering the stock, 4 have 'Buy' ratings, 8 'Hold,' and 3 'Sell'. After bottoming in late 2025 following BP arbitration, the stock recovered 10% in Q1 2026. The pattern is forming as legal headwinds ease and contracting accelerates.
What to Expect
A successful rounding-bottom breakout above $15.08 resistance would target $16.85 (conservative measure move). The pattern indicates volume confirmation is critical at the breakout—current volume ratio of 1.57x average suggests strong institutional interest. Historical rounding bottoms with similar structure/volume/breakout scores (15/12/13) show ~65% success rates. Invalidation occurs below $5.71 support; any sustained close below this level signals pattern failure. The setup's 64.77% win probability aligns with measured-move targets and risk/reward geometry.
Risk Factors
RSI is pushing 77.65, signaling overbought technicals, with price trading well above analyst targets. Negative free cash flow of $-6.80 billion and debt/equity ratio of 5.18 represent severe balance sheet strain. Major insider selling activity occurred on March 19, 2026—a warning sign within 5 days of this pattern formation. Wall Street remains divided with only 4 'Buy' ratings versus 8 'Hold' and 3 'Sell' from 15 analysts. 2026 guidance shows 11% EBITDA decline to $5.50 billion midpoint versus 2025. Beta of 1.18 and 20-day volatility of 1.0495 indicate elevated risk; RSI >70 combined with recent insider selling suggests pullback risk is high.
Sources:
Venture Global and Vitol Announce New LNG Purchase Agreement | Venture Global
·
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
·
Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Press Releases
·
Venture Global and Vitol Announce New LNG Purchase Agreement
·
Venture Global Rises Amid LNG Market Disruptions
·
FinancialContent - The High-Stakes Disruptor: A Deep Dive into Venture Global (NYSE: VG) in 2026
·
Venture Global, Vitol Sign 1.5 MTPA LNG Deal | VG Stock News
·
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Stock Price, Quote, News & Analysis | Seeking Alpha
·
News – Press Release | Venture Global
·
Top Executives Quietly Unload Massive Blocks of Venture Global Stock - TipRanks.com
·
Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Financials and SEC Filings - Annual & Quarterly Results
·
FinancialContent - The High-Stakes Disruptor: A Deep Dive into Venture Global (NYSE: VG) in 2026
·
Venture Global's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Catalyst for Growth in the LNG Sector
·
Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Venture Global Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
·
Venture Global (VG): Overbought Technicals and Valuation Headwinds Force Sideways Consolidation Despite Bullish Earnings • Dev|Journal
·
Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Press Releases
·
Venture Global’s revised 2026 outlook presents a pivotal challenge for LNG expansion execution | Bitget News
·
Venture Global LNG, Inc. - Investor Relations
·
Venture Global (VG) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 $VG
·
Venture Global, Inc. Class A common stock (VG) Earnings Report Dates & Earnings Forecasts | Nasdaq
Market & Sector Regime
Market
Bearish
-0.42
-1.0
0
+1.0
Utilities Sector
Bullish
0.06
-1.0
0
+1.0
Other Patterns Detected Today
Bull Flag
24 days in pattern
Weak
26.0
Ascending Triangle
20 days in pattern
Good
32.3
Post Collapse Recovery
65 days in pattern
Good
30.0
Overall Score
40
of 40
Pattern Quality
20
of 20
Setup
11
of 20
R/R
5
of 18
Context
Pattern Quality Score
15
of 15
Structure
13
of 13
Breakout
12
of 12
Volume
Recent Performance
Momentum & Trend
RSI (14)
73.6
Overbought
MACD Histogram
+0.31
Bullish
Bollinger Band Position
96.1%
Upper Band
Volatility & Risk
20-Day Volatility
1.05
Very High
ATR %
8.4%
High
Beta
1.18
Market
Volume Analysis
Volume Ratio
1.57x
Very High
20-Day Avg Vol
33.9M
shares / day
Current Volume
53.2M
shares traded
Price Levels
52W High
$19.39
Target
$16.85
Current
$15.80
Resistance
$15.08
Stop Loss
$14.36
Support
$5.71
52W Low
$5.71
Disclaimer: This analysis is algorithmically generated for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past pattern performance does not guarantee future results. Win probabilities are based on historical data across 370,000+ observations. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor. AI-assisted contextual analysis by Claude (Anthropic). Indicators reflect values at time of detection.