VNO: Rounding Bottom detected on 2 Jun 2026

VNO is forming a rounding bottom pattern with a structure score of 14.0/15 and breakout score of 13.0/13, indicating a well-defined reversal formation. The stock trades at $33.38, having recovered 35.86% from its 52-week low of $24.57 (key support) and currently 21.33% below its 52-week high of $42.04 (key resistance). The measured move target stands at $34.83 conservatively. Volume metrics are softer—current volume of 1.59M shares represents 0.86x average, signaling below-average breakout confirmation. RSI at 64.64 shows building momentum without overbought extremes. The overall pattern quality scores 70.0/98, with a win probability of 64.72%.

VNO beat Q1 2026 estimates with $0.52 FFO per share against an expected loss, with revenue of $459.1M topping forecasts despite a GAAP net loss. However, fundamentals reveal headwinds: FFO as adjusted declined to $103.1 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, from $126.2 million, or $0.63, primarily reflecting higher net interest expense and the absence of a prior-period ground rent reversal. NOI at share fell from $293.3 million in Q1 2025 to $272.1 million in Q1 2026, and NOI at share - cash basis declined from $269.4 million to $241.1 million. Management remains active: the company repurchased 2.75 million shares for $79.8 million and authorized a new $300 million repurchase program. Vornado agreed to purchase a 49.0% interest in Park Avenue Plaza at a gross asset valuation of $1.1 billion, a 45-story, 1,200,000 square foot building. The pattern emerges as management deploys capital while navigating elevated leverage.

A successful rounding bottom breakout would require the stock to clear $42.04 resistance with sustained volume above 1.84M shares (20-day average), targeting the conservative measured move of $34.83 and potentially testing the 52-week high near $42. The pattern invalidates decisively on a close below the key support level of $24.57. With a 64.72% win probability, historical data suggests favorable odds for reversal confirmation, though volume confirmation remains essential—the current 0.86x volume ratio flags that breakout follow-through lacks aggressive participation. The structure and breakout scores (14.0 and 13.0 respectively) indicate clean chart mechanics; sustaining momentum through the resistance zone will determine pattern success.

The company's pro rata share of total debt stood at $9.53 billion with a weighted average interest rate of 5.02%, creating ongoing interest expense pressure alongside rising floating-rate exposures. Full year 2026 estimated sales are projected at $1.862 billion, indicating a -5.1% decline versus the prior year, highlighting persistent headwinds in Vornado's core markets, particularly in Manhattan office leasing. Real estate sector context is bearish with a regime score of 0.09, creating significant structural headwinds independent of VNO's technicals. Same store NOI at share rose 6.1% but cash-basis same store NOI at share declined 2.9%, with a 51.2% drop at 555 California Street, indicating geographic and property-specific weakness. Beta of 1.3 amplifies market downturns. The volume ratio of 0.86x during a potential breakout setup suggests weak conviction; without institutional participation, the pattern faces invalidation risk at $24.57.