WMT: Rounding Bottom detected on 2 Nov 2026

Walmart is forming a rounding bottom pattern with a structure score of 14.12/15, indicating well-defined support and resistance. Current price of $123.51 sits between key support at $102.15 and key resistance at $133.04—positioned 25.95% above the 52-week low. Volume is elevated at 1.49x average (29.6M shares), supporting the accumulation phase. The overall quality score of 79.2/98 reflects a clean setup, though the breakout score of 13.0/13 and elevated RSI of 72.74 suggest the pattern is entering a critical decision point. The 18.46% gain over the past month signals building momentum into this technical inflection.

Walmart posted third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year sales outlook to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from prior expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%. Q3 revenue growth reached 6% in constant currency with adjusted operating income up 8%, while e-commerce surged 27% and advertising grew 53%. Most recently, quarterly revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year to $187.94 billion, with the company posting $0.81 EPS to beat analyst expectations by $0.07. The Consumer Discretionary sector is in a bullish regime (+0.71 score), creating tailwinds for retail strength. Walmart's momentum in membership income, advertising, and e-commerce—combined with beat-and-raise guidance—is driving institutional accumulation into this rounding bottom pattern.

A successful breakout above key resistance at $133.04 would target the conservative price objective of $129.73, representing a 5.1% move from current levels—achievable given the 44% win probability score of 75.87%. Volume confirmation critical: sustain above 20M shares on the breakout. The pattern invalidates below the key support level of $102.15, which would negate the setup and signal weakness. Historical rounding bottom patterns in bullish sector regimes typically show follow-through when volume increases during the breakout phase. Given the current elevated RSI (72.74) and positive MACD histogram (+0.4234), momentum support exists, though overbought conditions warrant watchfulness for potential pullbacks before resumption.

RSI at 72.74 signals overbought conditions—potential pullback risk before higher breakout. Upcoming Q3 earnings are scheduled for Nov. 19 before market open with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.64, creating binary event risk. The negative beta of -0.33 means WMT moves inversely to the broad market; broader market selloff could disconnect this stock from sector strength. Bearish overall market regime (-0.31 score) contradicts the bullish sector setup, creating conflicting signals. Key factors to watch are tariff-related costs, claims expenses, and general merchandise elasticity, which could pressure margins. Volatility elevated at 20.6%—elevated intraday swings could stop out near-term longs before pattern triggers.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.