MBLY: Post Collapse Recovery detected on 1 Jul 2026

MBLY is forming a post-collapse recovery pattern with concurrent three-white-soldiers candlestick formation (3 days old, pattern strength good). The stock trades at $9.68, sandwiched between key support at $7.66 and resistance at $11.26. Structure score of 10.97, volume score of 12.0, and breakout score of 12.05 suggest solid pattern mechanics. Volume is elevated at 2.12x average (12.8M shares vs. 6.1M 20-day average), confirming institutional participation. Overall score of 72.02 with 67.96% win probability indicates a mid-strength recovery setup. RSI at 57.34 shows neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold—providing room to run higher.

MBLY reported Q1 2026 revenue of $558 million, up 27% year-over-year, and raised the midpoint of full-year 2026 revenue guidance by 2%. The company authorized a $250 million share repurchase program and recorded a $3.79 billion non-cash goodwill impairment. Major banks including TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Canaccord moved price targets higher on MBLY after the beat and raise. Mobileye agreed to acquire Mentee Robotics, expanding its leadership in Physical AI across autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics. The company targets an initial fleet of about 100 vehicles in a major U.S. city in 2027, with plans to scale to approximately 17,000 vehicles, combining Mobileye Drive with Moovit's mobility platform. The Q1 beat and guidance raise in late April triggered a multi-week rally that created the current recovery setup.

A successful breakout above the $11.26 resistance would target a conservative measured move of $10.17 (already above current price). Volume confirmation is critical—the 2.12x relative volume supports breakout potential, and sustained volume above 8M shares would validate continuation. Invalidation occurs at $7.66 support; a close below this level signals pattern failure. With 67.96% win probability, the setup suggests two-to-one positive edge. If resistance breaks, the next ceiling near the 52-week high (~$20.20, though currently 52% below) becomes the secondary target. ATR of 0.52 indicates $0.50 daily ranges typical.

GAAP diluted EPS was $(4.68) with a $3,788 million non-cash goodwill impairment reflecting acquisition integration challenges. The stock remains 52.03% below its 52-week high, suggesting prior valuation concerns persist. Elevated beta of 1.46 and volatility of 89.51% indicate sharp drawdown risk if sentiment shifts. Regulatory or competitive setbacks could challenge expectations in the autonomous-driving sector. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0483), showing momentum divergence despite price strength. Next earnings date is not yet scheduled for Q2 2026, but competitive and regulatory developments in autonomous vehicles remain material risks. The $250M buyback, while confidence-signaling, requires sustained cash generation that depends on continued ADAS demand.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.