MC: Double Bottom detected on 30 Oct 2026

MC is forming a double-bottom pattern with textbook structure (score 15.0/15). The stock bounced from support at $51.38, rallied 8.9% in the past week, and currently trades at $59.98—near resistance at $61.30. Volume is tracking near 20-day average (ratio 0.97), suggesting moderate confirmation but not yet climactic. Breakout score of 10.83/13 reflects the pattern is quality but needs volume acceleration on a move above $61.30. RSI at 60.31 indicates room to run without overbought conditions. The double-bottom target (conservative) stands at $62.82, implying a 4.7% upside from current levels.

Moelis & Company is scheduled to announce Q3 2026 results after market close on November 5, 2026, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.7240 per share and revenue of $434.17 million. This setup is forming just 6 days before a material catalyst. Q2 2026 revenues hit a record $409.4 million (up 12% YoY), with the announced deal pipeline up over 80% year-over-year. The firm grew revenue without higher deal counts, instead collecting fatter fees on complex advisory mandates. Moelis ended Q2 with $481 million in cash and no debt. The strong pipeline and beat-and-raise Q2 performance provide fundamental support for the double-bottom forming, though immediate earnings clarity could trigger volatility.

A successful breakout above $61.30 resistance should see MC test the conservative target of $62.82 with sustained volume confirmation. Historical double-bottom patterns in this quality range (overall 70.65/98, win probability 63.51%) typically deliver 3-5% measured moves post-breakout. Volume confirmation is critical—current volume ratio of 0.97 must accelerate above 1.1x average on a break above resistance. Invalidation occurs below the key support level at $51.38; a close below that level negates the pattern and signals reversal. The pattern structure is nearly complete; the next week will be definitive.

Q3 earnings are due November 5, 2026—just 6 days away. Earnings volatility is material risk to this setup; a miss could trigger sharp reversal below support. MC's beta of 1.98 is elevated, amplifying sector swings in the Finance sector. Volume is currently subdued (0.97x average), suggesting institutional participation is lukewarm—breakout may lack follow-through. M&A activity is cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic shifts; while the Q2 pipeline was strong, deal flow can deteriorate rapidly in uncertain market conditions. No recent analyst downgrades detected in search results, but earnings guidance miss on Q3 could shift sentiment quickly given the stock is 20.9% below its 52-week high.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.