NFLX: Ascending Triangle detected on 31 Aug 2026

Netflix is forming an ascending triangle pattern with solid structural quality (14.5/15). Price is currently at $81.72, consolidating between support at $80.48 and resistance at $82.10. The pattern shows moderate breakout strength (12.0/13) and above-average volume confirmation (11.5/12). At 77.0 overall score with 62.93% win probability, this setup suggests a potential breakout. The pattern forms while price is down 35.51% from 52-week highs, presenting a lower-risk entry point. Volume metrics are neutral at 1.0x ratio, neither confirming nor weakening the structure.

Netflix reported Q2 2026 revenue of $12.56 billion, up 13% year-over-year, attributed to membership growth, pricing and increased ad revenue. The company narrowed its 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $51 billion to $51.4 billion. Recent price action has been positive, with the stock gaining 11.69% over the past month and 2.68% in the past week, suggesting recovery momentum after Q2 earnings volatility. Netflix's next earnings report is scheduled for October 20, 2026. The company guides for Q3 revenue growth of 12% (11% FX-neutral) and maintains full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook of 13-14% reported. Consumer Discretionary sector shows bullish regime (0.35 score), supporting this setup within favorable market conditions.

A successful breakout above the $82.10 resistance would target $85.01 (conservative measure), representing 4% upside from current levels. Volume confirmation is critical—breakout should accompany volume above the 29.09M average. The pattern suggests breakout is likely to hold if volume expands meaningfully. Invalidation occurs at $80.48 support; below this level, the ascending triangle structure fails. The 62.93% win probability indicates roughly 2:1 odds favoring upside continuation. RSI at 62.64 shows mild momentum without overbought conditions (>70), allowing room for breakout extension.

Earnings catalyst on October 20, 2026 presents both opportunity and volatility risk—pattern may resolve before or during this event. FX-neutral revenue growth slowed to 11% YoY from 12% in the prior quarter, suggesting growth deceleration that could pressure post-earnings sentiment. Stock is -35.51% from 52-week highs, indicating significant prior weakness; remnants of this downtrend could reassert. Three-month performance shows -5.0% loss despite recent one-month gains, reflecting choppy conditions. Low beta (-0.08) reduces correlation to market rallies, potentially limiting upside participation if broader market strength doesn't drive sector rotation. Watch for institutional selling given recent board transitions.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.