PLTR: Rounding Bottom detected on 31 Aug 2026

Palantir is forming a rounding bottom pattern at current price of $186.29, near resistance at $187.91. The structure score of 15/15 and volume score of 12/12 demonstrate a well-defined chart foundation, though the breakout score of 10/13 suggests incomplete momentum confirmation. The 67.31% win probability indicates solid pattern reliability. Current volume at 25M shares runs 53% of the 20-day average, showing cautious accumulation. Position data reveals stock is 75% above 52-week lows and 10% below highs, suggesting consolidation after powerful recent advance. MACD histogram at +0.24 and RSI at 69.28 indicate bullish momentum approaching overbought territory.

In early August 2026, Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion and raised full-year 2026 guidance to $8.15–$8.16 billion. Revenue surged 93% year-over-year with U.S. commercial segment booming 149%. Mercury Systems announced a new partnership with Palantir for supply chain automation and digital factory twins supporting U.S. military programs. Q2 delivered 94% revenue growth and 62% operating margin. The rounding bottom is forming post-earnings euphoria, after stock climbed 52% in one month. Recent pullback from August highs reflects valuation repricing rather than business deterioration, creating a technical setup capturing both momentum exhaustion and rebuilding confidence.

A successful rounding bottom breakout above $187.91 resistance would target $194.36 (conservative measure, +4.3% move), with potential acceleration toward $200 given prior bull flag and cup-handle patterns. Volume confirmation is critical—breakout should exceed the 47M average; current 25M indicates buying still accumulating. The 67.31% historical win probability suggests this pattern completes favorably roughly two-thirds of the time. Pattern invalidation occurs at key support $106.37, though near-term technical support lies closer at ~$180 area based on recent consolidation. The rounding bottom typically requires 4-6 weeks to complete; this setup is in mid-phase consolidation.

RSI at 69.28 indicates stock is nearing overbought conditions heading into potential breakout, creating risk of sharp pullback if momentum fails. Rich valuation paired with heavy exposure to U.S. government and defense spending poses risk to shifts in budgets or policy. Macro environment remains hostile: interest rate guidance from Jackson Hole has dampened multiple expansion for software stocks. Beta of 0.96 shows stock moves with market, so broad equity weakness poses downside risk. Volume ratio at 0.53 suggests weak relative participation in breakout setup—institutional accumulation may be incomplete. Next catalyst window is Q3 earnings, but macro headwinds could pressure premium valuation if growth expectations disappoint. Watch for any policy shifts affecting government/defense spending.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.