QDEL: Post Collapse Recovery detected on 15 Jul 2026

QDEL is forming a post-collapse recovery pattern off a deeply depressed base, with the stock currently at $17.66 positioned 78% above its 52-week low of $9.92. The structure score of 12.8/15 and breakout score of 10.45/13 indicate moderate pattern quality, with an ascending triangle detected on June 12 showing good strength. Support sits at $11.84 with resistance at $19.80. Volume is concerning at 0.46x average (784,679 vs. 1.71M 20-day average), suggesting weak conviction despite the recovery move. RSI at 61.39 shows neutral positioning. The overall score of 71.8/98 and 67.61% win probability indicate this is a viable setup worth monitoring.

Q1 2026 revenue totaled $620 million, but Point of Care declined 34% due to a significantly weaker respiratory season. Labs revenue fell 5% as reported due to slower distributor sales in China related to pending NHSA IVD pricing guideline changes, Middle East conflict disruption, and termination of the Grifols joint business arrangement. Management transitioned the company from COVID-driven volatility to a diversified diagnostics business in 2025, with Labs, Immunohematology and Cardiac delivering consistent growth and margin expansion. The timing of this post-collapse recovery pattern aligns with QDEL's May 2026 earnings miss—the stock likely cratered on guidance cuts and revenue disappointments, and is now recovering as near-term headwinds (weak respiratory season, China disruption) are viewed as temporary cyclical rather than structural.

A successful breakout from this post-collapse recovery would target $18.55 on the conservative measure, with the pattern considering the stock's transition through key resistance at $19.80. Historical breakout success shows 67.61% win probability. Volume confirmation is critical—breakout volume should exceed the 20-day average of 1.71M shares to validate institutional participation. Invalidation occurs below the key support level of $11.84; a break below this would signal the recovery was a false bounce and suggest further downside into the pre-collapse range. Beta of 1.53 suggests elevated volatility, so intraday swings during breakout attempts should be expected.

Ongoing China market disruption from NHSA IVD pricing guideline changes and the Middle East conflict represent material revenue headwinds. The Grifols partnership termination eliminates a revenue stream, creating a structural decline in Labs segment. Current volume of 0.46x average is a major red flag—pattern breakouts on below-average volume carry higher failure risk and lower institutional conviction. Q1 disappointment on May 5 may have exhausted near-term negative catalysts, but the next earnings cycle (likely Q2 in August 2026) presents re-test risk if respiratory season and China conditions haven't improved. Beta of 1.53 and 20-day volatility of 1.3636 make this a volatile instrument susceptible to sector rotation. Monitor for analyst downgrades tied to full-year guidance cuts; the May earnings miss may prompt rating reductions.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.