SITE: Double Bottom detected on 19 Oct 2026

SITE has formed a double-bottom reversal pattern with a 62.12% win probability and an overall quality score of 66.64. The structure scores 14.06/15, indicating well-defined support at $82.00 and resistance at $105.99. Volume support is strong at 12.0/12, with current volume at 1.01M shares (1.04x the 20-day average), confirming institutional interest. The breakout score of 7.58/13 suggests moderately convincing upside momentum. Price sits at $94.84, having rallied 8.81% in one week and 6.44% over one month from depressed levels, positioning it 15.66% above the 52-week low but still 43.74% below the 52-week high.

SiteOne will release its Q3 2026 results before the market opens on October 28, 2026, just nine days from the pattern detection date. Q2 2026 earnings showed net sales and adjusted EBITDA grew 5% year-over-year with strong cash flow supporting $124 million in share repurchases, despite weak end markets and guidance for 2026 adjusted EBITDA remains $425–$455 million. However, Q1 2026 reported EPS of -$0.60 versus a forecast of -$0.34, a significant negative surprise of 76.47%. New residential landscaping demand is down high single digits and repair and upgrade demand is down mid-single digits this year, though gross margin improved 50 basis points to 36.9% through increased price realization and strong execution in private brands and small customer segments. The sector—Consumer Discretionary—operates in neutral regime (score 0.15), while the broad market is bullish (0.64).

A successful breakout would require price to clear resistance at $105.99 on strong volume confirmation (ideally >1.2M shares). The measured move target from the double-bottom is $99.24, a conservative 4.6% gain from current price. The three-white-soldiers micro-pattern detected on Oct 14 (32.31 score, 3-day duration) reinforces bullish continuation. The invalidation level sits at support $82.00; a close below that would signal pattern failure and a potential 13.4% downside loss. With 62.12% historical win probability, this setup trades with moderate edge. ATR of 3.46 (3.65% of price) indicates typical daily moves of ±$3–4, so any breakdown below $82 would likely unfold over multiple sessions.

Q3 earnings release on October 28 introduces immediate event risk, just nine days away. Given Q1 2026 missed EPS forecasts by 76%, volatility could spike sharply post-announcement regardless of results. Weak end-market conditions in new residential construction and repair segments persist, creating demand headwinds. Technical risks: RSI at 57.88 is neutral (not overbought), but beta of 1.55 signals elevated volatility relative to the broad market. The double-bottom structure is still early; breakout has only 7.58/13 confidence score, suggesting unfinished breakout work. Positioned 43.74% below the 52-week high reflects prior significant selloff—reversal could face supply overhead. Sector regime is neutral (0.15 score), providing no tailwind to a Consumer Discretionary trade. Recent 3-month return is -7.73%, indicating this stock remains in a longer-term downtrend despite the short-term rally.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.