ARES: Double Bottom detected on 23 Oct 2026

ARES is forming a double bottom pattern with a structure score of 12.19 and volume score of 12.0—both solid confirmations of pattern integrity. The stock trades at $123.70, sandwiched between key support at $110.30 and resistance at $148.26. The breakout score of 11.92 signals meaningful upward momentum from recent lows. Current volume of 2.6M shares runs 1.18x the 20-day average, confirming institutional interest in the pattern. RSI at 57.42 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions—healthy for a breakout setup. The overall score of 68.11 reflects a moderate-to-high quality setup with 63.83% win probability.

Ares reported record quarterly fundraising of approximately $36 billion in Q2 2026, with AUM and fee-paying AUM both increasing 17% year-over-year to roughly $671 billion and $410 billion, respectively. Fee-related earnings grew 20% year-over-year to approximately $491 million, while realized income increased over 30% to $522 million. Most recently, on October 21, 2026, Ares announced the creation of a new investment partnership focused on European logistics, backed by a €1.5 billion equity commitment from Norges Bank Investment Management. On September 30, 2026, Ares announced its forecast for realized net performance income in the third quarter of 2026 to be approximately $10 million, up modestly from $9 million in the same period last year. The company's robust fundraising and expanding AUM base are driving positive momentum into the pattern breakout.

A successful breakout above $148.26 resistance would target $129.81 conservatively based on the measured move, though the full resistance zone extends to $148.26. Volume confirmation remains critical—the pattern should sustain above-average volume (>2.2M shares daily) to validate the breakout. Historical data shows a 63.83% win probability for this setup. Invalidation occurs on a close below $110.30 support; a breakdown through that level negates the double bottom structure and signals continuation of prior downtrend. The pattern suggests traders should expect initial momentum to test $135–$140 before attempting the full resistance zone.

Insider activity reveals significant net selling over the past 12 months, with insiders offloading $94.8 million worth of shares while purchasing only $1.3 million. The stock's elevated beta of 1.93 means it swings 93% more than the broader market—a red flag during volatile market periods. The recent €1.5B logistics partnership announced on October 21st is a strategic positive, yet near-term execution risk exists. The non-traded BDC experienced redemption requests, primarily from a small number of non-US family offices and smaller institutions, which represent approximately 10% of the vehicle's NAV. Additionally, the stock is down 1.16% over three months despite strong fundamentals, suggesting profit-taking headwinds. Q3 2026 earnings guidance (due soon) will be critical—any miss could violently break the pattern below support.

We scan more than 6,000 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks every trading day and compare each detected pattern against a database of 370,000+ historical detections. Every setup is scored across three dimensions: Structure, Volume, and Breakout Readiness. Win probability is a calibrated estimate of how similar historical setups performed over the following 10 trading days. This is a swing trading tool built for multi-day holds. It is not built or tested for day trading.